308 
FXUS61 KRLX 110011
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
811 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through tonight. Cooler and drier air on tap for
the rest of the weekend. High pressure to start the week. Another
cold front expected Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
8 PM Update...I went ahead and canceled the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch as line of storms has weakened considerably after sunset.
Looks like just some brief heavy showers as the line continues to
fizzle out. Winds with the outflow boundary out ahead of line
could also gust in the 30 to 35 mph range...but will continue to
weaken as it pushes eastward.

5 PM Update...Trying to time the line of convection coming into
the Ohio Valley with this update. Storms with this line are still
packing a punch...with the northern end of the line most likely to
meet severe limits...and I currently like the counties
highlighted in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. However we will
have to see how the northern end of the line holds together
as we may need to push the watch a few more counties eastward.
The southern end of the line will be delayed abit and will likely
enter into our region around sunset or slightly thereafter...so
with it arriving a bit later and without continued heating we are
not expecting severe storms at this time across our Southern
Zones.

Previous Discussion...
As of 02:00 pm Saturday...

Breezy and warm for the rest of this afternoon out ahead of a cold
front that extends from Michigan down to Louisiana attm. Short
term models have it moving into our extreme SE Ohio Counties late
this afternoon and along the Ohio River by 00z. Winds become
parallel along the front and any convection will be mainly with
the front. Heating along with the front will be the main driving
force for any convection. Storms should weaken after sunset. The
front is expected to push through the cwa and exit around 10z.
Plenty of low level moisture left behind the front should form fog after
the front passes. However, the only fly in the ointment will be
the winds. Will they die down enough for fog formation. Still think
in the sheltered valleys there will be some.

High pressure builds in quickly and skies should clear rather
quickly Sunday morning. Temperatures will be pleasant and only top
out in the 70s throughout much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

High pressure passes through the Mid Ohio River Valley Sunday
night, and lingers most of Monday. As the high drifts east,
winds will become more southerly Monday night and Tuesday, with
moisture beginning to increase. Models indicate just enough
moisture to kick off an isolated shower in the heating of Tuesday
afternoon. Included this in forecast, but it hinges on if moisture
return occurs soon enough or not.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Fairly weak cold front will move through on Wednesday. Models have
decent differences with this, with the GFS a bit faster brining
the precipitation into SE Ohio. This results in the ECMWF brining
the front through overnight with limited precipitation. Went with
some chance PoPs across SE Ohio Wednesday afternoon, tapering off
to slight chance east of the Ohio River as the front passes
Wednesday night.

Quick high pressure passes Thursday, with drier conditions before
return flow sets up again Friday into the weekend ahead of another
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 07:30 pm Saturday...

A line of showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the
region this evening. Based on upstream observations these showers
and storms have caused mostly MVFR conditions...so have done the
same with the latest TAFs. It is possible that brief IFR
conditions in a heavier shower could occur...but not confident
enough to add to body of the TAF and will handle with amendments
if need be. The front should be through the region by 06Z or
07Z...then there will be a chance for some fog develop with the
wet ground conditions. Have added IFR fog to all sites other than
BKW for the early morning hours...but still not sure if this will
be an IFR fog or IFR conditions with low stratus ceilings.  

After sunrise all sites will return to VFR with mostly clear skies
expected tomorrow.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and degree of lower ceilings and
visibilities in showers and possible thunderstorms over the next
few hours may vary. Fog and/or stratus behind the front overnight
into early Sunday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 09/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in fog and stratus Monday morning, and in valley fog
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. IFR stratus may show up along the
eastern slopes of the WV mountains Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/MPK
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK