968 
FXUS65 KVEF 241648
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
948 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and stable conditions are expected today across
most of the region. Thunderstorm chances will return to the southern
Great Basin and northwest Arizona Thursday through Saturday as a
weak low pressure system drops into central Nevada.
&&

.UPDATE...Overall the thinking has not changed from previous
discussion regarding today. However, latest HRRR and local 3km model
do develop some weak convection over portions of southern Mohave
County where we do not have anything mentioned. Not planning on
an update at this point but will monitor. -Harrison-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
340 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...through Friday night.

We will see greatly diminished thunderstorm potential today as drier
and more stable northwest flow spreads over the region on the back
side of the upper low pulling across the Four Corners. Temperatures
will increase several degrees today as an area of high pressure off
the southern California coast noses inland slightly. Attention will
then turn to the upstream broad trough currently over the northwest
states. This features is forecast to slide down over the Great Basin
Thursday and linger through Friday. This will bring some mid level
cooling and destabilization across the central Nevada and the
southern Sierra while increasing low level southerly flow advects
some moisture up through northwest Arizona and southeast Nevada.
This will lead to the potential for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms mainly across Mohave and Lincoln counties. Also,
cannot rule out a slight chance of thunderstorms over the southern
Sierra and southern Nevada mountains. Temperatures will trend
downward...especially Friday under the influence of the trough with
highs 3-5 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

Chances for showers will continue across Lincoln and Mohave counties
into Saturday before a shortwave moves across the region. Behind
this wave, a suppressed eastern Pacific ridge will slowly move into
the region bringing dry and warmer conditions Sunday into Monday.
The 6-10 day outlook shows the pattern becoming more amplified with
a trough over the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This pattern would
be less favorable overall for monsoon flow and may result in a
forecast more akin to the transition seasons (think gusty winds and
fronts). The forecast confidence is low in the forecast details
beyond Sunday. Temperatures are likely to run a few degrees above
normal.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...No significant weather is
expected today and tonight with generally light south-southwest
winds under a mostly clear sky.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Mostly clear conditions with generally light winds can
be expected across the majority of the region. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Sierra and
northwest Arizona this afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short term/Aviation: Adair
Long term: Wolcott

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