102 
FXUS62 KMHX 300838
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
438 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak boundary will stall over the area this
morning and then lift back north by later tonight. A weak cool
front will approach from the northwest early next week then stall
near the area by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 AM Saturday, dropped PoPs for this morning as showers
and thunderstorms just to the south of our CWA have dissipated.
Skies will be mainly clear through the morning hours before
clouds increase this afternoon. The combination of a stalled
frontal boundary just to the north of the CWA and a decent mid-
level shortwave crossing the area later this afternoon, coupled
with a moist/unstable airmass (forecast LI values of -5 to -7 this
afternoon), will lead to a good coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Have PoPs in the 40-50
percent range. While the threat of any widespread severe weather
is small, any thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and heavy
downpours. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler than recent
days and, with heat index values remaining just below 105 degrees
with a greater coverage of precipitation, no heat advisory will be
needed today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM Saturday, surface trough will linger inland tonight
with weak shortwave energy moving through at the mid-levels. As a
result, any ongoing convection late in the day will continue into
the nighttime hours and have kept about a 40 pct PoP going through
the night. Overnight lows should range from 73 to 78 degrees. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...00Z models runs remain consistent with
forecast of a pattern change Sun-Wed, indicating a rare early
August cold frontal passage through entire area by mid week. Some
model differences at end of week as latest ECMWF is indicating a
secondary short wave trough passage while GFS is not as amplified
and returns to mid level ridge pattern. Made minor adjustments to
temps and POPs during period, mainly to reduce to just slight
chance most of area Wed-Thu. 

Sunday and Sunday night...Short wave energy ahead of broad
mid/upper level trough progressing east from Ohio/Tennessee valley
will affect area during period. Surface boundaries will remain
west and northwest of area, thus expect scattered coverage and
kept POPs mainly in higher chance range. Mid/Upper level ridge
continues to break down as the broad trough over the Tennessee
Valley continues to dig south. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary
slowly sinks down from the NW, but remains to the north. This will
provide better chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop,
especially during the afternoon and evening. Model low level
thickness values appear similar to Saturday, thus went with warmer
MAV MOS with highs 92-94 inland and upper 80s to around 90 coast. 
Lows Sunday night 75-80. Some areas will approach heat indices
near 105 Sunday afternoon but not expected to be widespread enough
for advisory criteria at this time. 

Monday through Wednesday...Upstream energy moving into central
Canada will result in amplification of mid/upper level trough
moving into eastern U.S. Mon-Tue, resulting in surface cold front
approaching Monday night and moving into area Tuesday. Models
indicate enough of a push front high pressure to north for
boundary to actually move all the way through area Tuesday night,
then stalling and washing out to south Wednesday. Given good model
agreement, generally kept previous forecast of model blend
solution. Good coverage of convective activity expected ahead of
front, with likely POPS all of area Monday, eastern half Monday
night and southeast third Tuesday. Some locally heavy rain
possible with PW values around 2 inches, and isolated severe
possible with decent surface and mid level forcing. 
Did indicate slightly slower frontal push into area on Tuesday,
and lowered POPs on Wednesday. 

Not a major cool air push behind front and temps will actually
just drop back to near normal levels with highs near 90 and lows
70-75. 

Thursday through Friday...Per above, some model differences late
week as latest ECMWF is bringing another short wave trough from
northwest Thursday night, resulting in secondary surge of NE winds
Friday. GFS keeps this short wave farther north, and generally
indicates return to mid level ridging and return to Bermuda high
type pattern by late Friday. Given these differences, generally
stuck with previous forecast of high pressure extending over area
from NE both days with front washing out to south. Lowered POPs to
slight chance for Thursday and kept dry forecast for Thursday
night with slight chance again for Friday. Temps still near normal
both days with lows 70-75 and highs near 90. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short term /Through 06Z Sunday/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday, with nearly calm winds, a few patches of
MVFR fog are possible overnight, especially northern areas and
will continue to indicate some MVFR vsbys around KPGV. This fog
should quickly dissipate Saturday morning. While most of Saturday
into Saturday night will feature VFR conditions, coverage of
showers/thunderstorms will be better and will continue to include
VCTS at the TAF sites starting in the early afternoon. 

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/
As of 330 AM Saturday....Scattered to widespread rain and
thunderstorms through Tuesday will produce periods of sub-VFR
conditions. Precip chances lowering Tuesday night and Wednesday
with cold front pushing south of area, with VFR expected to
prevail. 

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 355 AM Saturday, very light winds continue this morning with
calm winds at Hatteras Coast Guard Station and all observations
under 10 knots. Directions are E/NE north of Hatteras and over
the Pamlico Sound, with SW winds over the southern waters. Seas
continue at 1-4 feet. As weak frontal boundary over the central
portions of the CWA dissipates today or moves back north, winds
will become S/SW on all waters this afternoon and tonight at 5-15
knots with seas 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Models remain in good agreement of SW flow
over waters Sunday through Monday night with high pressure
offshore and frontal boundary approaching from northwest. Latest
model blend does indicate slightly stronger speeds, but still
mainly 10-20 knots. Surface cold front passage from north-
northwest expected Tuesday with winds shifting to north-northeast
by Tuesday night. Slightly stronger surge of northeast winds up to
15 knots fore Wednesday. 

Seas mainly 2-4 feet during period, with some heights to 5 feet
outer portions of southern and central waters with stronger
southwest winds Sunday-Monday night. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB/JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...CTC/JBM