National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDCRP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP
Product Timestamp: 2016-07-23 02:32 UTC
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517 FXUS64 KCRP 230232 AAB AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 932 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... No major changes are needed to the forecast this evening. The forecast was updated though to account for latest observations and trends. Some showers may redevelop over the Gulf Waters after 06z and will keep 20 pops over the marine zones. Otherwise, another warm night with lows in the middle to upper 70s. Updated products all ready sent. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/ DISCUSSION... Updated for 00z aviation. AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail this evening with winds diminishing. There may be some patchy fog/br at ALI/VCT early Saturday morning and have retained for now MVFR vsbys in the latest forecast, although confidence of occurrence is lower. VFR conditions expected again on Saturday with winds gusting around 20-22 knots at ALI/VCT/CRP during the afternoon. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)... Concur with deterministic output that the upper ridge will remain quasi-stationary yet with a gradual weakness in the 500mb heights over the CWA/MSA during the period. NAM deterministic maintains above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA/MSA during the period. Expect diurnal/noctural convection during the period yet mainly isolated coverage when considering the upper ridge...weakening upper heights notwithstanding. Anticipate patchy fog over portions of the ERN/CNTRL CWA during the 09-13z Saturday period... consistent with SREF VSBY probabilities. Extended the SPS for 106-109F until 00z Saturday to cover nearly all of the CWA. LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Mid/upper level high pressure centered over the TX Panhandle and Southern Plains is progged to begin breaking down by Sunday. An easterly wave is then progged to track west across S TX Monday placing the eastern side of the trough across the area by Tue and Wed. This will lead to an increasing chance of convection Tue and Wed as moisture also deepens across the area. Kept pops close to previous forecast values as the Superblend model output was a bit too high this far out and would like to see some consistency with future model runs. Am expecting rain chances to decrease through the latter part of next week as the trough exits the area. However, each day through the long term is expected to have at least isolated convection. Max temps Mon through Wed are expected to be a couple of degrees cooler due to the increase in moisture/clouds. Heat indices are expected to range from 105-109 Sun and Mon then decrease Tue/Wed due to the overall cooler temps, but the higher heat indices are expected to return by the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 93 78 95 78 / 10 20 10 10 20 Victoria 76 97 77 97 76 / 10 20 10 20 20 Laredo 77 102 77 103 78 / 10 10 10 10 10 Alice 75 99 76 99 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Rockport 80 90 81 93 82 / 10 20 10 10 20 Cotulla 76 102 77 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 76 97 76 97 76 / 10 20 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 80 89 81 92 81 / 10 20 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TB/78...SHORT TERM