071 
FXUS61 KCAR 101911
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
311 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit across the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
High pressure will build across the region Monday through
Wednesday with warming temperatures. A strong cold front will
approach later Thursday and cross the area on Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trof will track east into the Canadian maritimes 
tonight. As it does so, showers will continue to diminish early
this evening. Skies will remain mainly cloudy tonight but we
should start to see some partial clearing toward morning. With
abundant low level moisture remaining for a good part of tonight
expect patchy fog to develop. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s north and low to mid 50s downeast.

High pressure will start to build toward the area on Monday and
we will finally see a return to mostly sunny skies and much
more seasonal temperatures for this time of year. Couldn't rule
out an isolated shower across the northern Maine woods. Highs on
Monday will range from the mid to upper 70s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Last vestiges of s/wv wl rotate out of the area Mon ngt as H5
ridging begins to build in fm the west. May see a vry brief isold
shower in the evng in orographic lifting but vry little in the way
of anything significant. Low wl drop to nr normal values in the
m/u50s by morning.

12z models hv trended much slower with sfc wmfnt as low gets hung
up acrs the Prairie Provinces. H5 low wl trek vry slowly along
the international brdr in the nrn Plains on Tue. This delays wm
frontal passage until Tue night thus hv lowered pops to isold,
mainly acrs the St. John Vly due strictly to diurnal htg. Sfc
hipres wl build into the Atlantic drg the day with sfc winds
backing to a swrly direction resulting in temps rising into the
80s areawide. Only exception wl be far north in the Allagash.

With frontal bndry lingering just north of the border and airmass
destabilizing in the wake of aftn htg think the best chc for storms
wl be ovr the St. John Vly once again. Srn zones wl stay capped
drg the day with ridge aloft just starting to flatten aft the end
of the short term. Due to ridging, a mosunny day expected and
srly winds on Wed 90F is not out of the realm of possibility for
highs in interior Downeast areas. M/u-80s wl be the norm
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very warm and unusually humid conditions are expected Wednesday
night into Friday with the Bermuda High pumping dewpoints in the
upper 60s into forecast area. Overnight lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday nights.  Thunderstorms will be a
threat starting Wednesday night as the remnants of a weakening
occluded front and shortwave riding over an upper ridge arrive in
the St John Valley. Have added chance pops for Wednesday night in
the Crown of Maine. On Thursday, this same boundary will remain in
the area and another weakening shortwave will arrive in western
portions of the forecast area late. The best CAPE will be mostly
from the Allagash south towards Greenville and Millinocket and
points west. Can't rule out the potential for a few severe storms
with wind and heavy downpours. Highs on Thursday will be in the
upper 80s with the highest humidity of the summer to date. A south
wind will ensure cooler and stable conditions on the coast with
highs in the 60s and 70s. Fog will probably affect the coast
Thursday night into Friday morning. Will keep thunderstorms in the
forecast Thursday night with elevated instability and some hints
of a pre-frontal trough. The cold front arrives Friday with
another round of thunderstorms. Again, some storms could be severe
with heavy rain and wind as the most likely threats. Shear will be
higher on Friday. Have gone with likely thunderstorms for a good
portion of the area on Friday. The big question will be timing on
the front and where the best destabilization will occur. Slightly
cooler but less humid air advects into the area for the weekend.
At this point, will go with dry conditions, but have concerns
about the front stalling and generating more showers Saturday. 
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR and MVFR conditions can be expected
tonight low clouds, patchy fog, and evening showers. VFR
conditions return on Monday.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected through the day Wed.
Exception may be a brief window of MVFR at FVE, CAR and PQI in
-shra/tsra Wed afternoon. IFR cigs are likely towards BHB later
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. These cigs will return
Thursday evening and continue through Friday morning. The low cigs
will probably reach Bangor on Thursday night into Friday morning.
Otherwise, the threat will be thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
through Friday. These thunderstorms are more likely west of a line
from FVE to GNR on Thursday, but a cold front will sweep across
Friday with all sites affected...to include the coast. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Monday. Visibility will be reduced at times this
evening in lingering showers and patchy fog.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through
Wed night. An SCA will deserve consideration Thursday as the
pressure gradient tightens and generates 20 kts winds and 5-6 ft
seas. It will be very stable without any gusts, but the safety of
inexperienced recreational boaters will be a factor. 

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Duda/Farrar/MCW
Marine...Duda/Farrar/MCW