730 
FXUS64 KMAF 061931
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Some change expected in the coming days as record or near record
heat continues, but chances of rain increase. An upper high
combined with a mid level thermal ridge will keep temperatures
well above normal into this weekend and possibly even next week.
Record warm lows continue to fall as we only bottomed out at 79
once again this morning (old record 76 in 1998). This could change
if a storm or outflow boundary moves over the airport. The record
high for today is 107 set in 1994 and as of 230 PM it is 101 at
Midland Intl. The record high for tomorrow (7/7) is 108 set in
1994. While we are not anticipating these records to be broken,
temperatures are still hot enough for a Heat Advisory across most
of the area. Will extend the current advisory into Thursday across
the same areas, leaving the east out where better moisture will
keep temperatures cooler.

As was the case the last couple of days, mid level moisture combined
with intense heating to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of these storms were severe with wind gusts up to 80 mph.
Expect nothing different the next few days as a dry sub-cloud layer
will again allow for strong, damaging winds to occur in and near any
thunderstorm. Precip chances may increase slightly Friday into the
weekend as a more potent mid level disturbance moves across the
area. The extra lift will allow for an uptick in convection each
afternoon. Mid level moisture will stick around into next week, so
will continue to carry mentionable PoPs in the forecast through the
extended. Even with the increase in moisture, it appears
temperatures will stay above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 102  75  99 /  10  20  10  20 
Carlsbad                       74 107  74 105 /  10  20  20  20 
Dryden                         76 103  77 102 /  10  20  10  20 
Fort Stockton                  76 104  76 100 /  10  20  20  30 
Guadalupe Pass                 73  97  72  93 /  10  20  20  30 
Hobbs                          71 105  72 100 /  20  20  20  20 
Marfa                          69  95  70  93 /  20  30  30  30 
Midland Intl Airport           79 105  79 102 /  10  20  20  20 
Odessa                         79 104  79 102 /  10  20  20  20 
Wink                           75 106  76 103 /  10  20  20  20 

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT Thursday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Thursday for Andrews-Big 
     Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Dawson-Martin.

&&

$$

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