National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDMHX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDMHX
Product Timestamp: 2016-07-02 07:29 UTC
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402 FXUS62 KMHX 020729 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move southeast into the region this morning then stall over the area into Sunday. The front will lift north of the area Sunday night. A weak boundary may move into the area Tuesday Night then dissipate Wednesday. A weak trough will develop to the west late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 230 AM Sat...Cold front to the NW is forecast to drift SE into the area today and stall. Fairly quiet thru most of the morning with limited instab. With heating shld see decent instab develop this afternoon and with front acting as a focus shld see decent coverage of shra and storms...espcly inland and N where cont likely pops. Forcing and shear aloft are weak limiting severe threat...however given the good instab a strong to marginally severe storm cant be ruled out. Highs will range from around 90 SW to lower 80s NE where ENE winds will develop behind front. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sat...With front stalled over the area expect decent coverage of shra and storms espcly during the evening with residual instab. Will cont with likely pops N to chc S thru the evening then chc all area late. Seasonal lows mainly low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 310 AM Saturday...Unsettled weather with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is expected Sunday/Monday as frontal boundary stalls over or just north of Eastern NC. Upper ridge builds over area mid to late next week with hot and humid conditions by late week. Sunday through Monday night...Model consensus indicates Saturday's stalled frontal boundary across Eastern NC will lift north of the area late Sunday night. Upper level flow remains zonal Sunday and Monday across Eastern NC while a shortwave moves from the Mid- Mississippi Valley into the eastern Appalachian Mountains by late Monday night. Stalled front should provide enough of a focus for convection, combined with deep moisture and weak upper level energy aloft to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. SPC continues to have Eastern NC outlooked in a marginal risk Sunday. An isolated strong to severe tstm possible mainly in the afternoon/evening hours with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain. Forecast soundings show SB CAPE values 2500-3000 J/KG, LI values -5/-7C and 0-6km shear around 30 knots. Will continue high chance/likely pops Sunday, then chance pops Sunday night into Monday as the boundary lifts north into southern VA. At this time think the main threat will be periods of heavy rain, with localized flooding possible, with PWAT values around or just above 2 inches through Sunday night. Low level thickness values support inland maximum temps in the upper 80s Sunday to lower 90s Monday, with coastal/OBX max temps in the mid/upper 80s. Overnight lows will range from the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Tuesday through Friday...Guidance indicates a sheared shortwave moving out of the Ohio Valley late Monday night into Tuesday with surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic. 00Z GFS continues 12Z trend of trying to push another front through the CWA Tuesday Night as surface low moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and continued to discount this scenario, hedging closer to a ECMWF- weighted guidance blend by keeping the main front north of the area. Cannot rule out a weak boundary sinking into the area Tuesday Night then washing out, follow by southerly surface flow redeveloping across Eastern NC. By late week, the upper ridge to the south builds north into the region with typical summertime pattern developing via inland/Piedmont troughing. Given decreasing moisture and best forcing north of the area, expect showers and thunderstorms to be mostly diurnally driven. The strong upper ridge building over the area late week will help yield low level thicknesses 1440-1450 meters, supporting mid/upper 90s for max temps Thursday/Friday. Could see heat index values 100-104 degrees as warm temps combine with dewpoints in the 70s. Some models trend even warmer for the extended, so interests vulnerable to extreme heat should continue to monitor the forecast trends. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 1220 AM Sat...Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. As winds diminish toward morning cant rule some light fog and lower stratus forming. Showers and thunderstorms will develop today as weak cold front moves into region. Expect will see some periods of sub VFR cigs/vsbys when convection crosses...especially this afternoon and evening. With weak front stalled over region could see some patchy fog and stratus form later tonight and early Sunday with best chc inland and N behind boundary. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 320 AM Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into early next week with periods of sub- VFR possible in showers/thunderstorms. A stalled cold front across the region will linger before lifting north on late Sunday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Sunday night, with better chances on the northern side of the front. Patchy fog and stratus will be possible Tuesday/Wednesday morning with moist boundary layer and light winds. Expect less shower activity and mostly VFR aviation conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with some areas of MVFR conditions possible due to showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and tonight/... As of 230 AM Sat...SW winds 15 to 20 kts with some gusts 20 to 25 kt will diminish and become more W thru daybreak as cold front approaches. Front will sag thru nrn waters then stall today. South of front WSW winds will cont 10 to 15 kts later today and tonight with ENE winds aob 15 kts nrn tier. Seas of 3 to 5 feet initially will subside to 2 to 4 feet later today and tonight...highest outer srn waters. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 325 AM Fri...A cold front will stall across the NC waters early Sunday and lift north of the waters by Sunday night. Wind forecast remains challenging into early next week and will depend heavily on where the front stalls, mainly NE/E 5-15 knots behind the front and SW 10-15 knots ahead of it with seas 2-4 feet. SW flow returns across the Eastern NC waters Monday, increasing to 10-20 knots and seas building to 3-5 feet Monday night into Tuesday, mainly south of Oregon Inlet. Latest guidance continued to indicate a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions Monday night through Tuesday evening. Another weak boundary could drop into the waters Tuesday Night with SW winds becoming NE briefly but expect to switch back to SW Wednesday with seas 2-4 ft subsiding to 2-3 ft by late afternoon. Local SWAN/NWPS and latest Wavewatch in good agreement through the medium range, with Wavewatch appearing reasonable for the extended period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...RSB/DAG AVIATION...RF/DAG MARINE...RF/DAG