AFOS product AFDMHX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMHX
Product Timestamp: 2016-07-02 07:29 UTC

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402 
FXUS62 KMHX 020729
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
329 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast into the region this morning then 
stall over the area into Sunday. The front will lift north of the
area Sunday night. A weak boundary may move into the area Tuesday
Night then dissipate Wednesday. A weak trough will develop to the
west late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Cold front to the NW is forecast to drift SE
into the area today and stall. Fairly quiet thru most of the
morning with limited instab. With heating shld see decent instab
develop this afternoon and with front acting as a focus shld see
decent coverage of shra and storms...espcly inland and N where
cont likely pops. Forcing and shear aloft are weak limiting severe
threat...however given the good instab a strong to marginally
severe storm cant be ruled out. Highs will range from around 90 SW
to lower 80s NE where ENE winds will develop behind front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sat...With front stalled over the area expect decent
coverage of shra and storms espcly during the evening with
residual instab. Will cont with likely pops N to chc S thru the
evening then chc all area late. Seasonal lows mainly low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM Saturday...Unsettled weather with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms is expected Sunday/Monday as
frontal boundary stalls over or just north of Eastern NC. Upper
ridge builds over area mid to late next week with hot and humid
conditions by late week.

Sunday through Monday night...Model consensus indicates Saturday's
stalled frontal boundary across Eastern NC will lift north of the
area late Sunday night. Upper level flow remains zonal Sunday and
Monday across Eastern NC while a shortwave moves from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley into the eastern Appalachian Mountains by late
Monday night. Stalled front should provide enough of a focus for
convection, combined with deep moisture and weak upper level
energy aloft to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. SPC continues to have Eastern NC outlooked in a
marginal risk Sunday. An isolated strong to severe tstm possible
mainly in the afternoon/evening hours with gusty winds, small hail
and heavy rain. Forecast soundings show SB CAPE values 2500-3000
J/KG, LI values -5/-7C and 0-6km shear around 30 knots. Will
continue high chance/likely pops Sunday, then chance pops Sunday
night into Monday as the boundary lifts north into southern VA.
At this time think the main threat will be periods of heavy rain,
with localized flooding possible, with PWAT values around or just
above 2 inches through Sunday night. Low level thickness values
support inland maximum temps in the upper 80s Sunday to lower 90s
Monday, with coastal/OBX max temps in the mid/upper 80s. Overnight
lows will range from the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the
coast.

Tuesday through Friday...Guidance indicates a sheared shortwave
moving out of the Ohio Valley late Monday night into Tuesday with
surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic. 00Z GFS continues 12Z
trend of trying to push another front through the CWA Tuesday
Night as surface low moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and
continued to discount this scenario, hedging closer to a ECMWF-
weighted guidance blend by keeping the main front north of the
area. Cannot rule out a weak boundary sinking into the area
Tuesday Night then washing out, follow by southerly surface flow
redeveloping across Eastern NC. By late week, the upper ridge to
the south builds north into the region with typical summertime
pattern developing via inland/Piedmont troughing. Given decreasing
moisture and best forcing north of the area, expect showers and
thunderstorms to be mostly diurnally driven. The strong upper
ridge building over the area late week will help yield low level
thicknesses 1440-1450 meters, supporting mid/upper 90s for max
temps Thursday/Friday. Could see heat index values 100-104
degrees as warm temps combine with dewpoints in the 70s. Some
models trend even warmer for the extended, so interests vulnerable
to extreme heat should continue to monitor the forecast trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through tonight/... 
As of 1220 AM Sat...Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. As winds
diminish toward morning cant rule some light fog and lower stratus
forming. Showers and thunderstorms will develop today as weak cold
front moves into region. Expect will see some periods of sub VFR
cigs/vsbys when convection crosses...especially this afternoon and
evening. With weak front stalled over region could see some
patchy fog and stratus form later tonight and early Sunday with
best chc inland and N behind boundary.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
As of 320 AM Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected into early next week with periods of sub-
VFR possible in showers/thunderstorms. A stalled cold front
across the region will linger before lifting north on late Sunday
night. MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Sunday night, with better
chances on the northern side of the front. Patchy fog and stratus
will be possible Tuesday/Wednesday morning with moist boundary
layer and light winds. Expect less shower activity and mostly
VFR aviation conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with some areas of
MVFR conditions possible due to showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and tonight/... 
As of 230 AM Sat...SW winds 15 to 20 kts with some gusts 20 to 25
kt will diminish and become more W thru daybreak as cold front
approaches. Front will sag thru nrn waters then stall today. South
of front WSW winds will cont 10 to 15 kts later today and tonight
with ENE winds aob 15 kts nrn tier. Seas of 3 to 5 feet initially
will subside to 2 to 4 feet later today and tonight...highest
outer srn waters.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
As of 325 AM Fri...A cold front will stall across the NC waters
early Sunday and lift north of the waters by Sunday night. Wind
forecast remains challenging into early next week and will depend
heavily on where the front stalls, mainly NE/E 5-15 knots behind
the front and SW 10-15 knots ahead of it with seas 2-4 feet. SW
flow returns across the Eastern NC waters Monday, increasing to
10-20 knots and seas building to 3-5 feet Monday night into
Tuesday, mainly south of Oregon Inlet. Latest guidance continued
to indicate a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions Monday
night through Tuesday evening. Another weak boundary could drop
into the waters Tuesday Night with SW winds becoming NE briefly
but expect to switch back to SW Wednesday with seas 2-4 ft
subsiding to 2-3 ft by late afternoon. Local SWAN/NWPS and latest
Wavewatch in good agreement through the medium range, with
Wavewatch appearing reasonable for the extended period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RSB/DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG