902 
FXUS65 KVEF 240448
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
948 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain well above normal through
Monday under high pressure. Monsoon moisture will start to seep in
from the southeast early next week, bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms along with slightly cooler but more humid conditions,
especially for areas south and east of Las Vegas.
&&

.UPDATE...Forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned this
evening. -Wolcott-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
229 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night.

Dry weather still expected through the period with high pressure in
control. Main concern remains the heat. Heat Impact Level grids
still show only spotty areas of 3 and 4, making it hard to justify
issuing an Excessive Heat Watch. Discussed this with neighboring
offices earlier and there was a solid consensus. Best performing
model guidance was very similar to previous forecasts, so very
little change through the period.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

High pressure ridge anchored over the four corners will begin to
take on an orientation more favorable to allow monsoonal moisture to
creep into the region. In addition, a weak upper low currently
approaching far south Texas will drift west over the next several
days and eventually aid in pushing deeper moisture into the
Southwest.  Precipitation chances will be on the increase through
the week from east to west, with the best chances for regional
thunderstorm activity looking to occur Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain quite warm but will be cooling to within a
few degrees of seasonal normals by midweek.  Convective cloud debris
will occasionally push through the region which could keep our highs
suppressed a few additional degrees when they occur, or
alternatively, work to keep our overnight lows elevated.  
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran..Breezy southwest winds with occasional
gusts to 20 knots will persist through sunset. Southwest breezes
will persist but gusts will decrease thereafter. Winds tomorrow will
be similar to today following typical diurnal trends. 

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Gusty conditions expected to develop this evening
across the Western Mojave Desert near KDAG where gusts may range
from 25-30 knots.  West winds will return to the Western Mojave
again tomorrow afternoon. Elsewhere...generally light winds are
expected with clear skies.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Morgan/Outler

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