246 
FXUS61 KCAR 070802
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
402 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain stalled to our northwest through
Wednesday. The low will slowly move east Thursday into Friday as
an upper level trough remains over the region.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The suite of model guidance indicates two s/wvs apchg our FA from
the SW originating from the Midwest. The first...more meso
system...looks to arrive late morn into midday, producing
shwrs...and with little in the way of built up SBCAPE, just isold
tstms. A second larger scale s/wv then apchs the FA from the SW
late in the day. This system will also produce shwrs and tstms. 

The big question is whether the atmosphere will have time to
destabilize later this aftn with any available sunshine aft the
first s/wv to allow for stronger tstms. If storms are able to
form...there is a deep shear layer to be present from the sfc to
15 kft abv ground...possibly resulting a couple of supercell
storms later this aftn...with the best axis of potential SBCAPE
xtndg from SW to Ne across Piscataquis county. For this reason,
we optd to include enhanced tstm wording for gusty winds and hail.

Any tstms that form ovr wrn ptns of the FA will propagate into ern
ptns by early eve with sig rnfl with rnfl diminishing late tngt,
xcpt perhaps along the ern Aroostook/NB border as sfc low develops
near cntrl Nova Scotia and then only slowly moves NE toward
Newfoundland, keeping the back edge of rnfl near ern ptns of
Aroostook and Washington counties. Temps will cool off some late
ngt, spcly across wrn ptns of the FA, behind a weak cold front.

 Otherwise...aft near normal hi
temps this aftn that will be dependent on avail sunshine, ovrngt
lows will cont to be mild due to cld cvr  
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The period will be dominated by the movement of a closed upper low
over the area that will bring cool temperatures and the threat of
showers as shortwaves rotate around the upper low. The first
shortwave is expected to impact the northeast corner of the
forecast area Wednesday morning and have assigned likely pops
during the morning from Madawaska towards Caribou. Pops decrease
to the southwest and will go with a mainly dry day towards
Greenville and Milo. There is some instability during the morning
before more stable and drier air advects eastward behind the
surface trough that crosses in the morning. Due to this stable air,
will not go with any thunderstorm activity for Wednesday at this
time, but will maintain chance pops for showers all day towards
the Crown of Maine and southward along the eastern border of the
state. Will have to keep on eye on Washington County for afternoon
thunderstorms if the trough isn't through that area by afternoon.
Highs on Wednesday will range from the low to mid 60s north to
lower 70s for Bangor and the Down East region. The upper low moves
into the Canadian Maritimes during Wednesday night into Thursday.
The northwest flow will keep widespread clouds over the area and
an increasing risk of showers for northern zones by Thursday
afternoon as another shortwave pivots around the upper low that
will be over Newfoundland by that time. Thursday will be somewhat
cool with upper 50s forecast in northern Aroostook and low to mid
60s Down East. Expect a chilly night Thursday night with low 40s
in the Allagash and mid to upper 40s elsewhere.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shortwave ridge builds Friday into early Saturday with
moderating temperatures. Saturday currently appears to be the
better day of the upcoming weekend with some sunshine and highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak shortwave may generate enough
instability for some afternoon showers...mostly in the northern
and western portions of the forecast area. A much more potent
shortwave barrels southward out of Quebec Saturday night and
quickly evolves into another large scale cut-off upper low that
will affect the period of Saturday night through at least Monday
or Tuesday. This means more showery conditions and cool
temperatures.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR and IFR vsbys/clgs are xpctd across the TAF sites
early this morn...with improvement to VFR xpctd by aftn. Tstms and
heavier shwrs this aftn and eve at TAF lctns could result in
brief pds of MVFR and even IFR clgs/vsbys. MVFR and IFR conditions
will likely become more widespread again late tngt.

SHORT TERM: Expect prevailing VFR conditions for BGR and BHB
through the period. North of HUL...the prevailing condition will
be MVFR cigs with vis occasionally reduced in showers. IFR
conditions are possible early morning for CAR and FVE Wednesday
into Friday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd this pd...however areas of marine layer
fog will cont tdy into tngt...with vsbys improving by daybreak Wed
behind a cold front. Wv type will become increasing more swell
like from the S Tue ngt as Colin moves ENE into the open Atlc S of
Cape Cod. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts this
update.

SHORT TERM: May need a small craft advisory later Wednesday into
Thursday. Wind gusts may approach 25 kts, but seas may reach up to
7-8 ft. Another potential SCA arrives later Sunday.  
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW