100 
FXUS63 KLBF 022039
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
339 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM Thu Jun 2 2016

The primary forecast concern over over the next 24 hours will be
thunderstorms chances across Western and North Central Nebraska.

An upper level shortwave will begin diving south out of the
Canadian Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba late
tonight...and translate south and east across the Northern High
Plains and into Central Minnesota by Friday evening. Surface low
pressure will also begin to develop under the left exit region of
the upper level jet streak across Northeastern Wyoming and
Western South Dakota by the evening hours tonight...before
sliding off to the east across the remainder of South Dakota
through the afternoon hours on Friday. A very weak baroclinic
zone/surface trough associated with the aforementioned surface
low...will enter the Eastern Panhandle during the late evening
hours tonight/early morning hours on Friday...and continue to
slip off to the east across the remainder of the
Sandhills...Southwestern and North Central Nebraska through the
morning hours on Friday. Low to mid level moisture...will begin
to increase across all of Western and North Central Nebraska
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours
today...with a sharp moisture discontinuity along and to the west
of the baroclinic boundary. Lift associated with the advancing
baroclinic boundary...in conjunction with the moisture pooling
along and to the east of the advancing boundary...could be
sufficient enough to produce a few isolated showers/thunderstorms
across Western Nebraska during the late evening hours
tonight....and then east across northern portions of the CWA into
the morning hours on Friday. At this time...kept PoPs very
marginal...mainly across Northwestern and Northern
Nebraska...where the best forcing and low level moisture pooling
is collocated.

For the day on Friday...high temperatures will once again rise
into the 80s across the CWA....with the warmest temperatures
across Southwestern Nebraska where mid to high clouds will be
less prevalent...and 850mb temperatures will be warmest.
Thunderstorm chances will linger across portions of North Central
Nebraska and the Eastern Sandhills through the mid/late morning
hours...before ending from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon hours across these areas as the baroclinic boundary
exits the region. While widespread strong storms are not expected
on Friday...an isolated strong storm or two can not be ruled out
during the early afternoon hours near and along the southeastward
advancing baroclinic boundary. This threat for a strong storm or
two...stems from 0-6km bulk shear values of around 30kts...CAPE
values at or around 1000 J/kg....and marginal 700-500mb lapse
rates of 6.5 to 7 degrees Celsius/km. The main threat Friday late
morning/early afternoon would be hail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM Thu Jun 2 2016

This weekend will be dominated by a ridge across the west while a
trough digs across the Great Lakes region. Backdoor weak cool
front to push across the area Friday night and will bring
slightly cooler temps for Saturday. Still a very pleasant day
with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 and mostly sunny skies.
Storms associated with the Great Lakes low will need to be
monitored however at this time all the activity is expected to
remain well northeast of the CWA. Sunday looks to be very similar
to Saturday, maybe a degree or two warmer.

As the Great Lakes trough drifts east early next week the ridge
will expand/flatten. Temps push up a few degrees to around 80 to
the mid 80s, with continued dry conditions.

By the middle of next week short waves will begin to ride across
the crest of the western ridge and move over the high plains.
This will bring back the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Timing and location still uncertain as models show significant
differences. Forecast will be for low pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2016

VFR conditions are expected at both the LBF and VTN terminals
over the next 24 hours...however...high to mid level clouds are
anticipated to be on the increase as a weak storm system crosses
the Northern High Plains. In addition to the increasing high
clouds...winds will shift from the south/southwest...to the north
northwest as a weak boundary crosses Western and North Central
during the overnight hours tonight. Surface winds gusts in excess
of 20knots are possible at the VTN terminal during the morning
and into the afternoon hours on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM Thu Jun 2 2016

Warmer temperatures over the next week across the mountains will
increase the runoff from snow melt. It will take some time for
the water to route from Wyoming into Nebraska, however the
current thought is little change in the North Platte River
upstream and downstream of Lake McConaughy due to steady releases
from the reservoirs. The South Platte River continues to see a
very slow fall, which remains above action stage but below flood
stages. The Platte River near Brady continues to see minor
flooding due to the high water from both rivers.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Moldan
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Moldan
HYDROLOGY...Masek