609 
FXUS62 KMHX 022007
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
407 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Newly re-developed Tropical Depression Bonnie offshore of Cape
Hatteras will move slowly northeast this afternoon, and east of
the area tonight. A cold front will move through the area Sunday
night into Monday. A second dry cold front will move through the
region Tuesday night into early Wednesday with high pressure
building behind the front through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/... 
As of 200 PM Thursday...minor update to extend higher POPs over
OBX a few more hours.

/Previous discussion/
As of 1100 AM Thursday...Bonnie strengthened overnight and early
this morning moving across warmer Gulf Stream waters, and has
sufficient tropical characteristics to be named Tropical
Depression again. System is just east of Cape Hatteras and will
move slowly NE this afternoon. Precip shield has wrapped mainly
around backside and will continue to produce moderate to
occasionally heavy showers along mainly OBX until mid afternoon.
Adjusted POPs/WX accordingly and raised QPF as well. Extended
Flood Watch until 5 PM. Also lowered max temps OBX to mid-upr 70s.

Inland...weak subsidence on back side will suppress convective
development this afternoon with latest meso models indicating only
isolated activity at best with weak late sea breeze development.
Dropped POPs to 20% and confined to farther inland areas until
after 5 PM. Max temps on track for low to mid 80s. 

/Previous discussion/
As of 640 AM Thursday...The remnants of Bonnie were located just
south of Cape Hatteras and were producing a large area of rain
with tropical downpours from the counties adjacent to the Pamlico
Sound to the Outer Banks. The low is forecast to move northeast of
the Outer Banks late this afternoon with the threat for heavy
rains ending by 18Z. Thus have extended the Flood Advisory for the
Outer Banks til 18Z but will cancel for Carteret County as the
heaviest rains should remain just to the east of there today.

For the remainder of eastern NC expecting mostly dry weather for
most of today. There is enough moisture combined with diurnal
heating/destabilization to produce a few afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms but coverage should be much less than previous days.
Expecting a little more insolation today so warmer high temps in
the lower to mid 80s should occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... 
As of 410 AM Thursday...Weak high pressure will briefly build
over the area tonight. Any ongoing convection is expected to
diminish by midnight with loss of heating. Lows will be in the
upper 60s inland and lower 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM Thursday...Expect a return to more diurnally driven
convection Friday and Saturday. A deep upper level trough will
lead to better chances of rain Sunday into Monday until a cold
front brings slightly cooler/drier air by Tuesday through Thursday.

Friday night through Saturday night...An upper level ridge will
remain centered across The Bahamas and Florida Friday night,
ridging north across the Carolinas, while a weak front/boundary
will approach the region from the north. Previous guidance
suggested the front would move as far south as the Albemarle Sound
but latest guidance indicates it will stall near the VA/NC border,
yielding mostly southerly/southwesterly flow across Eastern NC
through Saturday. These features, combined with weak flow, will
lead to a more diurnal convective pattern driven more by the sea
breeze and any remnant boundaries. Temps will warm into the upper
80s to lower 90s inland Saturday with nighttime lows in the lower
70s.

Sunday through Monday night...A deep mid-level trough will dig
into the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday into Monday, while mid-level
flow backs SW increasing the deep moisture across the region with
forecast soundings indicating PWATs build near 2 inches. As a
cold front approaches from the west slowly, shower/thunderstorm
chances increase to likely for this period as precipitable water
values increase to nearly 2 inches by Sunday, above the 90th
percentile for early June. Instability will be abundant while
shear increases to around 35 kt, yielding the threat for damaging
wind gusts and hail should storms become severe. Best timing for
stronger storms will be Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening,
ahead of the cold front. The front should shift offshore early
Monday with a drying trend beginning Monday afternoon. Despite
increased cloud cover, temps will build into mid/upper 80s both
Sunday and Monday with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday...The cold front will remain offshore
Tuesday with only a slight chance of showers for the coastal
waters south of Cape Hatteras. A secondary front will move through
the region late Tuesday night with winds shifting northwesterly,
ushering in some slightly cooler and drier air to the region. High
pressure over the Ohio River Valley will shift southeast over the
area late Wednesday into Thursday while the northeastern CONUS
upper trough finally shifts off the New England coast.
Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology with
highs in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s coast, and lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Fri/... 
As of 1250 PM Thursday...Predominately VFR expected thru taf
cycle. Rain and low clouds assoc with Tropical Depression Bonnie
will cont to move E away from region this afternoon. Additional
lower st/scu is lifting and should be mainly gone this afternoon
with sct cu expected. Overnight expect pc skies and with light
winds cant rule out patchy light fog late but guidance and
forecast soundings dont show much. Some scattered showers and
storms poss Fri afternoon but any lowering of cigs or vsbys shld
be brief. 

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
As of 355 PM Thursday...Aviation conditions will return to a more
summertime pattern Friday and Saturday with afternoon/evening
convection inland, but primarily VFR conditions outside of storms.
There could also be brief reductions in early morning fog in areas
that receive rainfall. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
increase Sunday and Monday as a mid-level trough and associated
cold front move through the region. Sub-MVFR ceilings possible
Sunday evening/night with a return to VFR conditions Monday
afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...quick update for expiration of SCA S of
Ocracoke. 

/Previous discussion/
As of 1100 AM Thursday...Bonnie strengthened overnight and early
this morning and has sufficient characteristics to be Tropical
Depression again. System just offshore of central waters will
slowly move NE this afternoon, and latest guidance indicates
stronger N to NW winds will persist over Pamlico Sound until mid
afternoon and extended SCA there until 5 PM.

/Previous discussion/
As of 640 AM Thursday...No changes to previous thinking. The
remnants of Bonnie currently located just south of Cape Hatteras
will track northeast off the Outer Banks today pulling away from
the area by this evening. This system will produce Small Craft
Advisory Conditions through this afternoon mainly from Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico sound with 15 to 25 kt
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. As the low moves away from the waters
late today and tonight the flow will become NW 10 kt or less with
seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
As of 400 PM Thursday...Winds will be SW 5-15 knots with seas
generally 2-4 feet Friday night through Saturday night as we
remain between weather systems. A deepening mid-level trough
approaches Sunday along with a slow moving cold front, which will
tighten the pressure gradient Sunday afternoon into Monday with
15-25 knot SW winds possible and seas likely to reach 6 feet, at
least over the outer waters by Sunday night. Small craft advisory
conditions diminish Monday as winds become WSW 5-15 kt and seas
subside to 3-5 ft south of Diamond Shoals with 2-4 ft north. Local
SWAN/NWPS and Wavewatch in decent agreement through the medium
range; thereafter, Wavewatch appeared overdone in warm-air
advective/southerly flow Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 410 AM Thursday...Widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms will produce heavy rain threat along the Outer Banks
through early afternoon with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
and locally higher amounts possible. Have extended the Flood
Watch for the Outer Banks until 2 pm for the thereat of poor
drainage flooding. The threat for heavy rains will end by mid
afternoon as the center of low pressure finally begins to pull
away from the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...JME/JBM/DAG
HYDROLOGY...MHX