941 
FXUS63 KGLD 101008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS IT ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER REGION MAINLY THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD HOLDS THE PATTERN IT
HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST FEW DAYS. A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FLOW STAYS CONSISTENT UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY WHEN A CLOSED
LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEWER MODEL RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.
WITH THE LOW PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO JOG EAST OVER THE
CWA AND HOLDS THIS PATTERN THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AND TAPS INTO
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BESIDES BULK
SHEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S FRIDAY WITH A DROP
INTO THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED FOG
SLIDING INTO KMCK FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF OF THAT FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO AS WELL IN THE TAFS. 

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO A
COLD FRONT. THESE TWO ITEMS...COMBINED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A RICHLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN STORMS. INDICATED THAT THREAT AT KGLD WHERE AM MORE CONFIDENT
STORMS WILL PASS OVER AT PRESENT TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH