538 
FXUS61 KCAR 230942
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
542 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS DOWN EAST THIS MORNING AND DECREASED
CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT DOWN EAST...THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMP TREND BASED ON THE COLD FRONT LOCATION. THE FRONT
HAS PASSED THROUGH GREENVILLE...MILLINOCKET AND HOULTON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE IS FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS
CAUSING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE DOWN EAST REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT H925-H850 MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY AND IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. SOME
GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 50F IN
THE CROWN OF MAINE TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE BUILDING IN ON SUN WITH SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE REGION
BFR WK FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE IN THE AFTN. LATEST
BUFKIT SNDGS SHOWING AN EXTRMLY DRY AIRMASS DRG THE DAY AND HV
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS DWPT VALUES IN THE AFTN. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FM THE M40S ACRS THE NORTH TO LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH. 

FRONTAL BNDRY DROPS THRU SUN NIGHT WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPRINKLES
ALONG IT, IF THAT. BLYR RMNS EXTREMELY DRY SO HV GONE WITH LESS
THAN 10 POPS DRG THE OVRNGT. WEAK CLD ADVECTION WL OCCUR THRU MON
MRNG WITH MINS JUST SLIGHTLY CLDR THAN SUN MRNG.

WV NOW WORKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EJECT EAST THRU THE
PD. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WL STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST
MON MRNG WITH WV RIDING ALONG BNDRY. MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHC FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST MON NGT AND HV CAPPED
POPS AT LOCHC ACRS COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON THRU 12Z TUE.
LATEST 00Z NAM APPEARS MORE REASONABLE THAN RMNG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
GIVEN HOW DRY AIRMASS HAS BEEN LATELY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTNDD PD WL FEATURE QUIET AND DRY WX THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. UPR
LOW WL CUTOFF OVR THE WEEKEND AND RMN PARKED OVR ERN CANADA THRU THE
END OF THE LONG TERM PER EURO. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH LATEST GFS AS
LOW KICKS OUT BY THUR. 00Z EURO SUGGESTING MINIMAL POPS THRU THE
LONG TERM WHILE GFS BRINGS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN FOR FRI. HV GONE WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS SHOWING ISOLD AND LOCHC POPS ACRS CWA LATE IN THE
PD. TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEEKS END.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIFTING TO VFR. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH. VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH SUN
NIGHT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO NORTHERN TERMINALS THRU EARLY MON
MRNG. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING BGR AND BHB
DOWN TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. VFR RETURNS
THRU THE END OF THE PD.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL PROBABLY NEED AN SCA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED/SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS IS NOT HIGH AND WILL NOT ISSUE RIGHT NOW.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RMN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU
THE PD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MITIGATE THE
RISK TODAY...BUT SUNDAY COULD BE INTERESTING WITH RH DROPPING
UNDER 20 PERCENT AND 30 MPH WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN IDEAL...FINE FUELS HAVE SUPPORTED NUMEROUS
WILDFIRES IN THE PAST WEEK AND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED
OVERNIGHT DID NOT BRING A WETTING RAIN TO MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...MCW/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...MCW