National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product FWSPHI
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: FWSPHI
Product Timestamp: 2016-04-21 15:10 UTC
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724
FNUS71 KPHI 211510
FWSPHI
SPOT FORECAST FOR SIXTEEN MILE...PA DCNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1110 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1045 EDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
.DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED WITH PRIMARY FOCUS POCONOS ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW JERSEY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH 3 PM IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY
AND THROUGH 1PM ALONG THE NEW JERSEY PENNSYLVANIA BORDER INTO THE
POCONOS AND THROUGH NOON ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN PA, BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT,
POSSIBLY TO 20 PERCENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT LEAST 20 MPH, POSSIBLY TO 28 MPH.
TODAY IS THE 9TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT RAIN.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, LEADING
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETUP NEAR OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2200-3800 FT AGL
LATE IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............1 1 10 20 29 41 54 66
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................58 61 64 66 71 72 72 70
RH..................33 33 31 30 27 27 28 32
20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW S S S S SW
20 FT WIND SPD......9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 25 25 25 25 20 20
SURFACE WND DIR.....SW SW SW S S S S SW
SURFACE WND SPD.....8 10 12 12 12 13 13 13
SURFACE WND GST.....15 20 25 25 25 25 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.5 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.5
CWR.................0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY
MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY
MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............76 85 95 96 96 97 98 98 99 99 100 100
WEATHER COV......... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................68 66 63 61 60 59 58 58 57 56 55 55
RH..................37 43 52 56 60 62 67 69 72 77 80 83
20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD......10 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5
SURFACE WND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S SW SW
SURFACE WND SPD.....12 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 5 5
SURFACE WND GST.....15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
CWR.................10 10 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 40
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 40
LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
CWR.................40 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
WIND SHIFT..........
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2300-4100 FT AGL
LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
3900-5100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
TO 2900 FT AGL LATE.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).............100 100 97 94 91 91
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................55 57 62 65 68 68
RH..................86 83 70 65 59 59
20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 8 SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 15 10
SURFACE WIND........SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 SW 8
SURFACE WND GST.....10 10 10 15 15 10
MIX HGT (FT)........BLW100 600 2300 4100 5100 3900
CWR.................40 60 60 60 70 70
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40 60 60 60 70 70
LAL.................1 1 1 4 4 4
$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160421.SIXTE.02/PHI