553 
FXUS64 KBMX 101607 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1107 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION AND ONLY HAVE 10 POP
MENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS TIL 21Z. BY THAT TIME...IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY PAST US. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE LOWER AND
HAVE ADJUSTED THE 12 HOUR SHORT TERM ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE.  

08

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...INCLUDING TCL...TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW RH VALUES. HOWEVER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN GOOD SO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. 

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/

FOR THIS MORNING... EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT OBSERVED 09/00Z SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MODEL FORECASTS
DEPICT A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS THAT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
VERTICAL COLUMN. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO REDUCE
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES AND WILL RESULT IN MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED A FEW DAYS
AGO. WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AS
NEAR-SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING... FOLLOWED
BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A BRIEF WINDOW OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
LOWER LEVEL VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS WE EXPECT THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO RETURN
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION... RESULTING IN INCREASED THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH CONTINUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND SLIDES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST TOWARD THE STATE EARLY
ON TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 

REGARDING CONVECTIVE HAZARDS... AT THIS TIME THE MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WITHIN OUR CWA THE MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BEST LIFT AS WELL AS COOLING
OR SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE FROM RAINFALL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS NON ZERO...WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A HYDROLOGY SECTION TO DISCUSS
THAT IN MORE DETAIL. 

THE FRONT CLEARS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WE WILL SEE THE TROUGH
SLIDE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES UP FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. FOR THE
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S. 

05/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  48  74  58  67 /  10   0  50  90  60 
ANNISTON    68  48  75  60  67 /  10   0  50  90  70 
BIRMINGHAM  69  52  74  61  67 /  10   0  50  90  50 
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  61  69 /  10   0  70  90  40 
CALERA      70  51  75  62  70 /  10   0  50  90  50 
AUBURN      67  51  75  60  73 /  10   0  40  80  70 
MONTGOMERY  72  50  78  63  78 /  10   0  50  80  70 
TROY        72  52  77  62  76 /  10   0  30  70  70 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$

08/05/16