AFOS product AFDBMX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBMX
Product Timestamp: 2016-04-07 03:36 UTC

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FXUS64 KBMX 070336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1036 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR WEDOWEE IN RANDOLPH COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO ALEXANDER
CITY IN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR AUTAUGAVILLE IN
AUTAUGA COUNTY TO NEAR SELMA IN DALLAS COUNTY FURTHER SOUTHWEST
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DEW
POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MESOANALYSIS REVEALS
AROUND 500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH A BAND OF HIGHER 0 TO 1
KILOMETER STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EXTENDING FROM THE MONTGOMERY
AND TROY AREAS NORTHEAST TO THE AUBURN AREA NORTH TO INCLUDE
CHAMBERS COUNTY.

A FEW ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH
MODERATE STORM ROTATION OBSERVED... HOWEVER... TORNADO POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH
DESPITE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION... THE STABILIZATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER IS
INHIBITING UPDRAFTS NECESSARY TO CREATE AND TO SUPPORT EARLIER
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS WILL FALL TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH RISING CLOUD BASES AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AT ALL
SITES... DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

05


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 30S.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 750 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR CULLMAN
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WALKER COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
SUMTER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ALABAMA FROM CALHOUN COUNTY NOW AFFECTING NORTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTY
AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CHEROKEE COUNTY.

ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF ALABAMA SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... SURFACE WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NEAR
SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CAPE VALUES FROM
250 TO 500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM. ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS
DEVELOPING ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE.

EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE LINE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE. BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS... A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY
POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  71  44  64  37 /  90  10  10  10   0 
ANNISTON    49  72  46  64  38 /  90  10  10  10   0 
BIRMINGHAM  49  73  48  66  40 /  80   0  10  10   0 
TUSCALOOSA  49  76  49  67  42 /  80   0   0   0   0 
CALERA      50  74  49  66  42 /  90   0   0   0   0 
AUBURN      53  73  50  66  42 /  90  10   0   0   0 
MONTGOMERY  54  76  51  72  43 /  90   0   0   0   0 
TROY        57  76  52  71  44 /  70  10   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$