National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBMX
Product Timestamp: 2016-04-07 03:36 UTC
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520 FXUS64 KBMX 070336 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1036 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016 .UPDATE... MESOSCALE UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR WEDOWEE IN RANDOLPH COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO ALEXANDER CITY IN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR AUTAUGAVILLE IN AUTAUGA COUNTY TO NEAR SELMA IN DALLAS COUNTY FURTHER SOUTHWEST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MESOANALYSIS REVEALS AROUND 500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH A BAND OF HIGHER 0 TO 1 KILOMETER STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EXTENDING FROM THE MONTGOMERY AND TROY AREAS NORTHEAST TO THE AUBURN AREA NORTH TO INCLUDE CHAMBERS COUNTY. A FEW ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH MODERATE STORM ROTATION OBSERVED... HOWEVER... TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH DESPITE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION... THE STABILIZATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER IS INHIBITING UPDRAFTS NECESSARY TO CREATE AND TO SUPPORT EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. 05 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. CEILINGS WILL FALL TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH RISING CLOUD BASES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES... DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 30S. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/ A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR CULLMAN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WALKER COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN ALABAMA FROM CALHOUN COUNTY NOW AFFECTING NORTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTY AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CHEROKEE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ALABAMA SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... SURFACE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CAPE VALUES FROM 250 TO 500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM. ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE. EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LINE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE LINE. BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 47 71 44 64 37 / 90 10 10 10 0 ANNISTON 49 72 46 64 38 / 90 10 10 10 0 BIRMINGHAM 49 73 48 66 40 / 80 0 10 10 0 TUSCALOOSA 49 76 49 67 42 / 80 0 0 0 0 CALERA 50 74 49 66 42 / 90 0 0 0 0 AUBURN 53 73 50 66 42 / 90 10 0 0 0 MONTGOMERY 54 76 51 72 43 / 90 0 0 0 0 TROY 57 76 52 71 44 / 70 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$