AFOS product FWSCTP
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Product Timestamp: 2016-03-09 10:07 UTC

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117 
FNUS71 KCTP 091007
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANGE 38...PA DMVA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
507 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 EST ON MARCH 09. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY BETWEEN 
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...
AND A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WIND...DRY FINE FUELS... UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 30 
PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY 
WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. PERSONS 
SHOULD POSTPONE ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SINCE THE FIRE COULD EASILY
SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL. 

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE 
STATE...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF 
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. 
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 
                    TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE 
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 
LAL.................NO TSTMS. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3300-4900 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 2 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 2 TO 8 
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 13 
                    TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 

TIME (EST)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
SKY (%).............12  15  17  18  20  23  26  28  29  32  
WEATHER COV.........                                        
WEATHER TYPE........                                        
TSTM COV............                                        
TEMP................51  55  60  64  66  69  72  73  72  70  
RH..................66  61  51  45  42  37  33  33  33  35  
20 FT WIND DIR......E   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   5   7   9   10  12  12  10  9   
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   10  10  15  20  20  20  20  20  
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.7 3.8 4.6 4.9 4.7 3.3 
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....2   2   3   8   13  16  17  16  15  13  
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. 
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND 
                    VARIABLE. 
LAL.................NO TSTMS. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 
SKY (%).............35  45  45  45  45  45  45  65  65  65  65  65  
WEATHER COV.........                                                
WEATHER TYPE........                                                
TSTM COV............                                                
TEMP................67  64  63  62  61  60  59  57  57  56  55  55  
RH..................42  46  46  48  60  72  75  80  77  80  83  83  
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  
20 FT WIND SPD......8   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   3   
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10                          5   
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   7   7   8   8   7   6   5   3   3   3   3   
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 
                    AFTERNOON. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. 
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 
                    TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
LAL.................NO TSTMS. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 

TIME (EST)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
SKY (%).............65  60  60  60  60  60  60  63  63  63  63  63  
WEATHER COV.........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH 
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  
TSTM COV............                                                
TEMP................54  53  57  61  64  67  69  71  71  72  72  69  
RH..................86  89  80  75  70  63  61  57  57  55  55  63  
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   5   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   8   
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5           10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10  
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3   3   3   5   6   8   10  13  15  16  16  15  
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...NICK HOFFMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160309.RANGE.01/CTP