970 
FXUS63 KPAH 030947
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
347 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016

H50 short wave energy and its associated surface low will drop
southeast into AR this morning. 08z HRRR/RAP models develop an
area of mainly light rain over se MO by around 12z-13z...then
spreads the precip east into wrn KY/far srn IL during the mid to
late morning hours. Many of these locations could pick up 1/4 to
1/3 inch of rainfall, but heavier amounts should stay south of the
forecast area, closer to the surface low. Biggest question for our
area may end up being how far north the precip shield gets. There
is some suggestion that locations along/north of the OH River
could see little if any rainfall from this system. The rain should
exit east of the region during the afternoon.

Thereafter, high pressure will settle east into the region to end
the work week. With it will come a return to sunshine and a
gradual warming trend as we head into the weekend. Should see
temperatures pushing 60 degrees many locations by Saturday
afternoon, possibly even lower 60s in portions of se MO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016

After a dry Sunday, a very wet pattern is setting up for the work
week.  Models show an area of low pressure over the Central/Northern
Plains Monday night, moving slowly northeast to north of the Great
Lakes region by 12z Wednesday.  The associated cold front will move
just northwest of the PAH forecast area, and models are in good
agreement showing the front lingering in our region much of the
week.  Showers chance will remain confined to portions of southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri Sunday night and Monday, then
chances will gradually spread southeast Monday night into Tuesday
night.  Models are not in agreement in where the axis of heaviest
rain will be, but do agree on pretty significant rainfall beginning
on Wednesday.  Instability is not too impressive at this time, but
any thunderstorms will just add to the rainfall amounts.

Along with abundant moisture, southerly winds will bring
unseasonably warm air into the region.  Temperatures Sunday will be
just a little above normal, but readings Monday through Wednesday
will be much warmer.  Highs Monday through Wednesday will be 10 to
15 degrees above normal, with lows around 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1106 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016

Widespread mid clouds around 10k feet will continue through the
night, possibly producing some virga. Unusually dry southeast winds
will evaporate the precip before it reaches the ground. Between 12z
and 18z Thursday, the low levels will moisten up as heavier
precipitation starts falling through the column. Cigs and vsbys will
lower to mvfr. A period of ifr conditions is likely for at least a
few hours where the heavier precip occurs. The 06z tafs will
forecast ifr at kcgi/kpah based on heavier precip rates in those
areas.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY