072 
FXUS64 KLIX 280533
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1133 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG SHOULD BE THE NEXT
COUPLE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/ 

SHORT TERM...
NO ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH JUST TEMPERATURES BEING THE ONLY
CONSIDERATION...AND THESE WILL IN TYPICAL SEASONAL RANGES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE MONDAY TO BRING AN ONSET OF
RETURN FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR FOG IN THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. 

LONG TERM...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. BOTH AGREE ON A DRY
WEDNESDAY...THEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY IN A BIG
WAY. THE GFS TAKES THE CLIPPER LOW WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TO BRING A GREATER WEATHER IMPACT INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF
TAKES THE MAIN DYNAMICS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOCAL HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS FAVORS THE NORTHERN PASSAGE AND TRACK
RECORD OF GFS WOULD SUGGEST FUTURE RUNS WILL TREND NORTHWARD OVER
TIME. THIS LEADS TO CHANCE RAIN WITH ELONGATED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
LESS CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION THAT THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST.
24/RR

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CAN NOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THREAT TOO LOW TO CARRY
IN FORECAST. WINDS MAY SNEAK ABOVE 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. 35

MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE RESPONSE TO BAROCLINIC RETURN ONSETS TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW TO BRING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAYBEFORE
SETTLING TO LIGHTER LEVELS HAS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION AS
HIGH WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
BRINGS FRONT THROUGH COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE. 
DEPLOYED...NONE. 
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING
                           	        
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND 
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION 
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT 
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY  
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT 
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  38  70  51  74 /   0   0  10  10 
BTR  41  70  53  75 /   0   0  10  10 
ASD  38  70  51  74 /   0   0   0  10 
MSY  46  69  56  75 /   0  10   0  10 
GPT  42  66  54  71 /   0   0   0  10 
PQL  38  69  49  73 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$