903 
FXUS63 KEAX 102329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
529 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

Cold high pressure overhead will be pushed to the south overnight.
Winds have already backed to the southwest across the western CWA so
the warm air advection process has begun. Am expecting a non-diurnal
temperature trace with lows established this evening and then
temperatures steady to slowly rising. 

As noted yesterday the first half of the work week will be marked by
a roller-coaster ride on temperatures as first a clipper system jets
through on Monday. While the low levels will be starved of moisture
there should be a fair amount of mid level cloud cover generated
that will sweep through the CWA through the day. Inspection of
soundings and the upward vertical motion generated by the compact
vorticity max will likely yield a fair amount of virga. Have opted
to insert flurries across northern MO. 

Operational models have maintained continuity with a second and
stronger clipper system that will dive south from the Northwest
Territories and then swing southeast through MN/IA/WI late Monday
night. Another surge of arctic type air will overspread the region
on Tuesday as the associated cold front sweeps through. Could see a
band of light snow/flurries with this front. Tuesday will be about
as cold as today with probably a 5 degree or less of a diurnal
spread. 

Fortunately this round of arctic outbreaks is short-lived and warm
advection returns above normal temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday.

Big question mark for Friday and Saturday's weather as the medium
range models remain out of synch with each other with respect to
timing and location of two features. While both models are
relatively close with a shortwave trough moving through the
Southern Plains and Mid MS Valley on Friday the ECMWF is stronger and
lifts the shortwave further north, generating a stronger and more
northern track of the surface low. This solution places the
potential for wintry precipitation on Friday. The GFS in contrast
grabs a second shortwave and deepens it over the Southern Plains on
Friday with a stronger surface reflection passing through AR and the
resulting northern edge of its deformation zone/snow spreading
across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Feeling little confidence in
biting on either solution will continue to take a blended model
approach.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

Expect VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the
forecast period. There will likely be some low clouds rolling through
the terminals around mid day on Sunday. The feature causing the low
clouds is weak and transient so confidence is low with MVFR coverage.
Handled that time period with a SCT030, but should there be concern
for BKN coverage at that level will add it in an upcoming forecast. 

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton