135 
FXUS63 KFSD 260916
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
316 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

AN INTENSE 12 HOURS OF SNOWFALL HAS BROUGHT MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS
INTENSE SNOW BAND...WITH OBSERVED LIGHTNING WITHIN IT...CONTINUES
TO SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA. WITHIN THIS SNOWBAND...THE NWS
OFFICE IN SIOUX FALLS OBSERVED 4.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN 2 HOURS.

THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY FORCING SNOW INTO THE AREA IS RACING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH DRY SLOT EDGING TOWARDS THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTH. GRADUAL ACCELERATION OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO
NUDGE THE EDGE OF HEAVIER SNOW NORTH OF I- 90 BY 6AM. WITH THE
LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING.

TO THE WEST...DEFORMATION SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-
DAY...AND MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOW IN AREAS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...SPG
INCREASES BY THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WIND GUSTS COULD
START TO TOP 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND TRAVEL WILL BE
DANGEROUS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES ATTM.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET IN MOST
AREAS...AND SEVERAL AREAS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

A CLEAR AND COOL DAY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SUNDAY WITH MAYBE JUST A
FEW CLOUDS LINGERING EARLY SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS ND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S LOOK RIGHT.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE MUCH MORE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM
OVER OUR AREA THAN IT DID YESTERDAY MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONG KICKING WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
USA...WHICH THE MODELS REALLY DID NOT HAVE YESTERDAY EXCEPT FOR
HINTS ON THE CANADIAN AND EC. NOW ALL MODELS BRING SNOW UP AT LEAST
TO THE EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA WITH THE EC STILL THE STRONGEST.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONG AXIS AROUND WHICH THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...AND A STRONG EAST/WEST MID LEVEL FETCH OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH MEANS WE MUST NOT BE TEMPTED TO
LOOK AT THIS LOW AS BEING CIRCULAR IN ITS EFFECTS. THE HPC OUTLOOK
FOR SNOW POTENTIAL IS GENERALLY ACCEPTED...AND IT MAY BE ONLY THE
PRESENCE OF THE CURRENT STORM THAT HOLDS OFF...FOR THE TIME
BEING...A WATCH FOR THIS ONE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EC SOLUTION
IS THE ONE TO LEAN ON. THE OTHER MODELS HAVE HEADED A LONG WAY IN
ITS DIRECTION SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND A FURTHER SUCH MOVE WOULD
BRING MORE CERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. IN ANY EVENT WILL
HAVE LIKELY TO UNQUALIFIED POPS FOR OUR EAST TO CHANCE NORTHWEST FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE TO GO WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AS JUST SNOW...IGNORING THE WARM SPIKE ALOFT ON THE
NAM WHICH DOES NOT GET UP TO OUR AREA ON THE OTHER MODELS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ONE DOES APPEAR TO LEAN TO THE EASTERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COLD...NOT QUITE AS COLD MONDAY NIGHT AS WE HAD BEFORE WITH THE
SYSTEM STILL WORKING STRONGLY OVER THE AREA.

LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AFORE
MENTIONED KICKER WAVE ITSELF COMES UP. THIS WILL BE MORE ELONGATED
NORTH/SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND SUFFER FROM COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WEAKENING AVAILABLE THERMAL CONTRAST...THUS
ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. 
 
WILL GO FOR DRY THURSDAY AND NEW YEARS DAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH
GUIDANCE AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY WAVES WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCKER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL...A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS AT LEAST...UNDER THE MODEST WINTER
PATTERN AND A WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

WIDESPREAD BANDED SNOWFALL WILL KEEP IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z-18Z. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND KSUX...BUT WILL NOT PUT IN TAF DUE TO LOW
POINT PROBABILITY.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND
INVERTED TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS
LEADING TO AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
MVFR FOR THE THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-
     050-052>071.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-089-097-098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ090.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-020.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-
     014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN