128 
FXUS65 KTFX 041013
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN
U.S. CONTINUES TO SPLIT WITH THE ENERGY THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT NOW LIFTING INTO SK.
A DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW MT THIS MORNING
AND THOUGH PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE...LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AS
PLANNED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NW BC DROPS SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF A 100KT
N-S UPPER LEVEL JET AND EVEN SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SW MT WITH MOST
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF MOSTLY DRY AND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS
AND MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNDAY WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS MOVE
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. MPJ


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0536Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS/VIS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  38  20  41  20 /  50   0  20  40 
CTB  40  19  43  16 /  20   0  20  30 
HLN  39  21  39  22 /  40   0  10  50 
BZN  35  16  36  21 /  40  10  10  50 
WEY  32  11  27  15 /  40  10  30  60 
DLN  33  15  35  19 /  40  10  20  50 
HVR  42  20  45  20 /  40  10  10  20 
LWT  37  20  38  21 /  40  10  10  40 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS