308 
FXUS63 KILX 190844
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015

Fire weather concerns highlight the short term. Increasing winds 
under a tightening pressure gradient will be the controlling factor 
as to what counties are included in a Red Flag Warning for extreme 
fire weather conditions. Very low RH and dry fuels will be present 
in all of our forecast area this afternoon, but the strongest winds 
of 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph will be mainly confined to our 
western and northern counties. We upgraded all of the counties that 
were in a Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and added 
additional counties across the north. This includes our counties NW 
of the IL river, with the addition of Woodford, Tazewell and McLean 
counties.

The dry airmass will preclude much in the way of cloud cover, with 
full sun aiding in producing a deep mixing layer to tap into the 
strong mid-level winds. 

Temperatures today will begin an upward trend, as brisk southwest 
winds usher milder conditions into IL. Highs should top out 7 to 10F 
deg warmer than yesterday, with readings in the upper 60s southeast 
of I-70, and low to mid 70s west of I-55.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015

Surface high pressure sliding to the east will leave the Midwest in 
more southerly flow, continuing the unseasonably warm days. Central 
Illinois will see max temps in the 70s tomorrow...and through the 
mid to upper 70s by Wednesday, with some locations in the lower 80s. 
Deep upper low passing over Hudson Bay Mon-Tues dragging a front 
across the Midwest.  Models continue to introduce some precip to the 
northwestern portions of the state.  Have started trending in some 
chance pops nw of the Illinois River Valley this morning for 
overnight Tuesday...but in general, the front is not quite overrun 
with precip. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at some 
scattered activity along the boundary...most of it to the north.  
Front is starting to slow somewhat in the push through the 
region...and some sct activity lingering into Wednesday in the 
models.  Have kept the forecast somewhat conservative for now, 
keeping to slights during the work week. Cooler temperatures follow 
for the end of the week behind the front. Beyond that, the desert SW 
low finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best 
precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and 
Saturday.  Depending on the location of the boundary in the Midwest 
for Saturday's max heat of the day, may need to introduce some 
scattered thunder for Saturday afternoon in the next couple runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015

VFR conditions expected thru Monday night. The main concern will
be with the increasing southerly winds later tonight and
especially Monday afternoon. Still looking at a period of LLWS
late tonight into early Monday before sustained winds of 15 to
20 kts are expected for the rest of Monday with some gusts 
up to 30 kts at times. The gusty south to southwest winds will
gradually subside after 02z Tue with sustained winds ranging
from 10 to 15 kts overnight. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this 
evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith