336 
FXUS62 KMLB 301441
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1041 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW SPINNING OFFSHORE THE
NORTHERN FL COAST...NORTHEAST OF VOLUSIA COUNTY. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK
UP INTO LATE MORNING WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE AFT. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL MOS POPS FOR
TODAY WITH GFS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (UP
TO 30-50 PERCENT NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST WHILE
THE NAM IS DRIER AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO 20 PERCENT OR
LESS. FEEL THE NAM HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND WEAK LOW AND ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON 12Z TBW/XMR
SOUNDINGS AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO 20
PERCENT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFT AND LATE DEVELOPING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE BEACHES WHERE
INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE SURF...LEADING TO A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUD COVER PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BREAK UP INTO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED INTO THE AFT. SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED THIS AFT AS SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR ALOFT
WRAPPING AROUND WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN FL COAST.

&&

.MARINE....WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING SWELLS BY 2-3
FEET FROM "JOAQUIN" CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. LATEST BUOY
OBS ARE AROUND 7-8 FT AT 41009 AND 9-10 FT AT 41010. IN ADDITION
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE THE NRN FL COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
INTO THE AFT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.

WITH LARGER SWELLS ALREADY IMPACTING THE WATERS HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
NEARSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH SWELLS EXPECTED TO ONLY
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND SCA WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AND AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS AROUND 3.0 FT
WHICH IS 0.2 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH
TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE BACKING UP THE
RIVER LEVEL. RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH MID WEEK. A VERY SLOW DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS WILL OCCUR
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY 
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD 
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY