National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDUNR Product Timestamp: 2015-09-06 20:11 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KUNR Products for 06 Sep 2015 View All AFD Products for 06 Sep 2015 View As Image Download As Text
423 FXUS63 KUNR 062011 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 211 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2015 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN MN TO NORTHWEST KS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE CWA AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER -SHRA HEADING EAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT THEN RETURN FLOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. 25-35KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WITH NOTABLE 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR CENTRAL SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWEST. MONDAY...MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHEAST AS WEAK TROUGH/WARM FRONT DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN NE. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR...BUT SOME SHOWING 1.5KJ/KG MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON NEAR BOUNDARY OVER THE SD PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS DURING PEAK HEATING IF THIS OCCURS...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER NE. SHORTWAVE TO ASSIST DEVELOPMENT NOT EVIDENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2015 SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD TUESDAY MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN AN HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2015 BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY...AND COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259. && $$ SHORT TERM...HELGESON LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...15 FIRE WEATHER...15