014 
FXUS63 KEAX 031739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and 
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning 
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion 
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface 
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of 
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a 
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift 
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish 
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as 
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will 
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and 
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a 
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday 
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will 
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers 
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the 
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models 
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until  
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front 
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper 
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in 
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several 
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of 
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have 
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday 
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the 
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable 
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to 
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Little change to the ongoing aviation discussion. Backed off on wind
gusts for today, but introduced some higher wind around mid morning
on Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions anticipated for remainder of the
forecast period. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton