AFOS product AFDBGM
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Product Timestamp: 2015-08-22 13:56 UTC

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FXUS61 KBGM 221356
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
956 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
940 PM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
425 AM UPDATE...
A QUIET DAY ON TAP WITH A BIT OF A FALL LIKE FEEL IN THE AIR THIS
MORNING. WITH 850 TEMPS OF +8C AND A LAKE TEMP AROUND 70, WE ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL IMPACT CNY
AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE BREAKING UP.
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE SKY HAS BEEN CLEAR, RIVER VALLEY FOG
LIKELY THROUGH 8 AM. WITH THE POCKET OF COOL AIR OVERHEAD AND A
CHILLY START, TEMPS HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING US ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH MORE RIVER VALLEY
FOG LIKELY.

ON SUNDAY MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WE WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM MID MORNING ON AS MOISTURE
RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST INTO OUR AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD
BE ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TEENS BY AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. THIS
WILL PUSH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IF NOT INTO THE 80S IN OUR WARMER
SPOTS. A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...

A MOISTURE STAVED COLD FRONT WILL BRING US A SHOT AT SHOWERS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. FIGHTING AGAINST MUCH MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE (30%) OF RAIN WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT
AND THE TIMING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. HERE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES COME PRIOR TO MIDDAY, THUS WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING
OUR SHOWERS MAY BE SPARSE. OVERALL LOOKING AT A LOW QPF EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE
OVERALL...THOUGH WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TUE-THU PERIOD ONLY ON
THE OUTER RIM OF MOISTURE POOLED AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN CANADA. SO ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FORESEEN...SKEWED MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AS WELL AS COOL AIR ALOFT
/ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/. FARTHER SOUTH...DRY SLOT WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. 

MOST OF THE TIME...AND AREA...WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ALSO
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THANKS TO INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK ACROSS NY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD LATE
THURSDAY.

I OPTED TO POPULATE THE WX GRIDS WITH SHOWERS RATHER THAN
THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT IS SHUNTING THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z AT KELM. LAKE
CLOUDS PRODUCING BKN CIGS AROUND 5KFT AT KRME AND KSYR THROUGH
MID MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR AND MAINLY CLEAR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AT
KELM AFTER 06Z, VFR ELSEWHERE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THE REST OF TODAY. NEAR CALM OR
LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT. 

.OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH WED... MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
VALLEY FOG.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/KAH
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN