National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBGM
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBGM
Product Timestamp: 2015-08-22 13:56 UTC
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889 FXUS61 KBGM 221356 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 956 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 940 PM EDT UPDATE... FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 425 AM UPDATE... A QUIET DAY ON TAP WITH A BIT OF A FALL LIKE FEEL IN THE AIR THIS MORNING. WITH 850 TEMPS OF +8C AND A LAKE TEMP AROUND 70, WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL IMPACT CNY AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE BREAKING UP. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE SKY HAS BEEN CLEAR, RIVER VALLEY FOG LIKELY THROUGH 8 AM. WITH THE POCKET OF COOL AIR OVERHEAD AND A CHILLY START, TEMPS HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG LIKELY. ON SUNDAY MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM MID MORNING ON AS MOISTURE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST INTO OUR AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TEENS BY AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IF NOT INTO THE 80S IN OUR WARMER SPOTS. A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND! && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 425 AM UPDATE... A MOISTURE STAVED COLD FRONT WILL BRING US A SHOT AT SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. FIGHTING AGAINST MUCH MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE (30%) OF RAIN WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND THE TIMING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. HERE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES COME PRIOR TO MIDDAY, THUS WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING OUR SHOWERS MAY BE SPARSE. OVERALL LOOKING AT A LOW QPF EVENT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 325 AM UPDATE... FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TUE-THU PERIOD ONLY ON THE OUTER RIM OF MOISTURE POOLED AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED IN EASTERN CANADA. SO ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FORESEEN...SKEWED MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AS WELL AS COOL AIR ALOFT /ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/. FARTHER SOUTH...DRY SLOT WILL BE MORE DOMINANT. MOST OF THE TIME...AND AREA...WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ALSO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THANKS TO INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK ACROSS NY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD LATE THURSDAY. I OPTED TO POPULATE THE WX GRIDS WITH SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT IS SHUNTING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z AT KELM. LAKE CLOUDS PRODUCING BKN CIGS AROUND 5KFT AT KRME AND KSYR THROUGH MID MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR AND MAINLY CLEAR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM AFTER 06Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THE REST OF TODAY. NEAR CALM OR LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK... SUN THROUGH WED... MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN/KAH SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...DJP/MDP AVIATION...HEDEN