National Weather Service Raw Text Product

300 
FXUS63 KLSX 132353
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
653 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT) 
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THRU TONIGHT. 
DEEP MIXING AGAIN TODAY SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT WITH COOLER 
DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL 
BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY WINDS BECOMING SLY ACROSS WRN AND NRN PORTIONS 
OF THE CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS EWD. STILL...HAVE TRENDED TWD THE 
COOLER GUIDANCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THRU THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EWD INTO THE 
REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION. 
HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING SOMEWHAT IN PLACE...MDLS DO 
NOT BUILD THE THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE AREA NOR DO THEY HAVE A STRONG 
SWLY FLOW. A MINOR EXCEPTION IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN 
SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP 
ALONG THE ERN OZARKS AND PERHAPS INTO ERN PORTIONS OF IL. HAVE KEPT 
DRY POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT ARE CERTAINLY NOT ZERO AND MAY NEED TO 
BE INCREASED WITH FUTURE UPDATES IF TRENDS CONTINUE. 

MDLS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN EVEN MORE EARLY NEXT 
WEEK ALLOWING A FNT TO DROP INTO AT LEAST NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 
THIS FNT SHUD THEN LINGER BRIEFLY BEFORE LIFTING NWD AGAIN AS A 
WRMFNT MID TO LATE WEEK. THE TROF DISCUSSED YESTERDAY HAS BEEN 
DELAYED WITH THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 
SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR NOW.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

SURFACE RIDGE FROM MO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE REGION'S WEATHER INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, AND DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.  HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MEAN CI LEVEL CLOUDS (BASES AOA 15KFT), BUT CERTAINLY NO
SIGNFICANT CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
AMS. THIS CLOUDINESS COULD LIMIT THE STEAM FOG THREAT AT KSUS AND
KCPS, BUT WILL MAINTAIN THINKING OF 18Z TAFS WHICH EMPHASIZED
PATCHY GROUND FOG (WITH NO RESTRICTION TO PREVAILING VSBYS) AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLOUDS
AOA 15KFT.

TRUETT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     68  89  70  91 /   0   0   0  10 
QUINCY          64  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   5 
COLUMBIA        65  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0 
JEFFERSON CITY  64  88  65  91 /   0   0   0   0 
SALEM           64  86  65  90 /   0   0   0  10 
FARMINGTON      61  86  62  89 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX