196 
FXUS62 KILM 290151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH 
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF 
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND 
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START 
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF 
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND 
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. 
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL 
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE 
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR 
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY 
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS 
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP 
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE 
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION 
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM 
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT. 

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID 
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE 
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID 
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A 
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST 
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL 
OFFSHORE.   

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL 
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A 
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                     
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND
AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME 
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH 
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY 
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF 
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL 
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS 
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK 
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH 
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL 
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS 
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS 
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN