051 
FXUS64 KMAF 022027
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The concern in the short term is the coverage of thunderstorms
over southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin
tonight and again tomorrow night. The source region for these
storms (Raton Mesa, Capulin, and the Sangre de Christos of far
northern New Mexico) and subsequent cold pool generation and
organization suggests multicell linear segments dropping south or
southwest across eastern and southeastern New Mexico overnight.
There is little upper support for these storms, and in fact the
farther south they move, the more hostile environment these
storms will encounter. Have kept a slight chance to chance PoPs
over southeastern New Mexico, with activity petering out around
sunrise Friday.

Should see more a less a repeat of thunderstorm activity Friday, 
with perhaps a bit of a westward shift. There should be enough
instability over the mountains to support at least isolated
coverage Friday afternoon. This scenario should repeat itself for
Independence Day and Sunday, with the bulk of the PoPs remaining
from southeastern New Mexico south across far western Texas. Given
the modest shear and marginal buoyancy, lightning, brief heavy
rain, and gusty winds will be the significant impacts through
Sunday.

We start to get into a wetter regime Monday through Wednesday as
an upper level deformation zone sets up over west Texas.
Coincident with this north-northeast/south-southwest deformation
zone will be warm mid-level theta-e air, a good setup for precip
hereabouts during the summer. Additionally, PWat values will
range from 2 to maybe 3 SD above normal. Could see some heavy
rainfall in places, but placement and timing will hinge on
mesoscale boundaries left over from earlier convection. Bears
watch, though. Will see drying working from east to west across
the region late Wednesday into Thursday, confining the best
chances for thunderstorms to the mountains.

Temperatures through Sunday will be near normal and winds will be
light, generally easterly to southeasterly. We'll see temperatures
cool down to a bit below normal mainly Tuesday and Wednesday with
the increase in cloud cover and moisture, then return back to mid
July levels toward the end of the week.  

Felt that a consensus blend of forecasts, with a lean toward the
SREF, was warranted through Sunday, then the superblend looked
okay into next week. While it's unfortunate that some 4th of July
activities will be impacted by thunderstorms, the fact that we're
getting good rains after a few years of severe drought is welcome.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  73  92  72  93  /  10  10  10  10 
CARLSBAD NM                    68  93  69  92  /  30  20  20  20 
DRYDEN TX                      72  91  72  93  /  10  10  10  10 
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  91  67  93  /  10  10  10  10 
GUADALUPE PASS TX              65  85  65  88  /  20  30  30  30 
HOBBS NM                       65  89  64  89  /  30  20  10  10 
MARFA TX                       66  87  65  87  /  10  20  30  30 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  92  70  92  /  10  10  10  10 
ODESSA TX                      71  91  70  92  /  10  10  10  10 
WINK TX                        70  96  70  96  /  20  10  10  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/70