National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDILX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDILX
Product Timestamp: 2015-06-30 19:46 UTC
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006 FXUS63 KILX 301946 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 246 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 18Z/1PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. TWO DISTINCT SHORT-WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...ONE OVER INDIANA AND ANOTHER FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. DESPITE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER SUPPORT IS VERY WEAK IN THE WAKE OF THE INDIANA WAVE. AS A RESULT...AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS EARLY THIS EVENING TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THINK THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. FURTHER NORTHWEST...A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SASKATCHEWAN WAVE THIS EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND TRACKING IT FURTHER S/SW ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE TRIMMED POPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A MACOMB...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO OLNEY LINE TOWARD DAWN WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE AROUND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 DESPITE A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, THERE STILL APPEAR TO BE A FEW DRY PERIODS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT WITH A STRONG MCS DEVELOPING IN NEBRASKA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE ALL SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CENTER, WITH THE LOW PASSAGE NOW DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. INCREASING WARM FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW, AS EARLY AS 12Z/7AM WEDNESDAY IN OUR SW COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN COMING WED NIGHT AS LOW CENTER REACHES FAR SW IL BY 12Z/7AM THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 THURSDAY, AS THE LOW PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IL WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES SEE A POTENTIALLY DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE DRY TREND MAY END ON SUNDAY AS A LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS IL. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP WITH THAT FEATURE, WITH THE CANADIAN DRY AND THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE, SHOWING SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE IL RIVER FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WILL PROMPT STORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF IL. AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA, RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN THE GFS ADVERTISES A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO DIFFER WITH THAT SOLUTION, INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE END RESULT IN HIGHS WAS TO CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH NORMAL BEING MID 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS AND VCTS AFTER 13/14Z AT KSPI AND KDEC. FURTHER NORTH...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AT THE I-74 TAF SITES. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOG TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NUMERIC GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED VSBYS TO AROUND 3SM AFTER 09Z ACCORDINGLY. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARNES LONG TERM...SHIMON AVIATION...BARNES