National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLOX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLOX
Product Timestamp: 2015-06-27 04:30 UTC
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652 FXUS66 KLOX 270429 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 930 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW AT KLAX THIS EVENING...AROUND 800 FEET OR SO. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THIS AREA THRU TONIGHT. S OF PT CONCEPTION...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED FROM CATALINA TO PALOS VERDES...AND THESE SHOULD ALSO EXPAND TO THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT AS MID AND HI LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHES IN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THRU SUN....WITH SRN CA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI. AN UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE CA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA THRU MON...WITH A BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. IT LOOKS LIKE VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS MAINLY N OF PT CONCEPTION THRU SUN. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED SAT THRU MON WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE S AND SE. MUCH HIER PWAT VALUES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM BY SUN AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.60 INCHES...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES FOR MON. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ON SUN...AND OVER THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ON MON. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MON ALTHO THE AIR MASS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE HUMID. TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHO SAT SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE THREE DAYS...AND MON THE WARMEST...WITH HIGHS TO THE CENTURY MARK IN THE WARMEST VLYS. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MONSOON MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA BUT PWATS EXPECTED TO PEAK MON/TUE. AGAIN NOTHING TO REALLY HANG OUR HAT ON IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OTHER THAN SURFACE HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH WED. 850 DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7C AND 9C TUE/WED SO THERE'S A LITTLE MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THU AND FRI BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW PROBABLY THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING IN WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE SO WE COULD SEE A RAMP UP OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR COOLING SLIGHTLY WED-FRI. && .AVIATION...27/0020Z. AT 2327Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT KSBP AND KSMX TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT KSBA... KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB WITH THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 02Z AND KLAX TO 09Z AT KLGB...AND PERSISTING THRU LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THERE IS ALSO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KPRB EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD FROM ABOUT 02Z-20Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU SAT EVENING. KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...26/900 PM. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND AND TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW AVIATION...SIRARD MARINE...HALL/SIRARD SYNOPSIS...SUKUP WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
773 FXUS66 KLOX 270752 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 930 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW AT KLAX THIS EVENING...AROUND 800 FEET OR SO. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THIS AREA THRU TONIGHT. S OF PT CONCEPTION...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED FROM CATALINA TO PALOS VERDES...AND THESE SHOULD ALSO EXPAND TO THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT AS MID AND HI LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHES IN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THRU SUN....WITH SRN CA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI. AN UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE CA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA THRU MON...WITH A BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. IT LOOKS LIKE VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS MAINLY N OF PT CONCEPTION THRU SUN. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED SAT THRU MON WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE S AND SE. MUCH HIER PWAT VALUES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM BY SUN AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.60 INCHES...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES FOR MON. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ON SUN...AND OVER THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ON MON. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MON ALTHO THE AIR MASS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE HUMID. TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHO SAT SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE THREE DAYS...AND MON THE WARMEST...WITH HIGHS TO THE CENTURY MARK IN THE WARMEST VLYS. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MONSOON MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA BUT PWATS EXPECTED TO PEAK MON/TUE. AGAIN NOTHING TO REALLY HANG OUR HAT ON IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OTHER THAN SURFACE HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH WED. 850 DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7C AND 9C TUE/WED SO THERE'S A LITTLE MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THU AND FRI BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW PROBABLY THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING IN WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE SO WE COULD SEE A RAMP UP OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR COOLING SLIGHTLY WED-FRI. && .AVIATION...27/0520Z. AT 0500Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS 900 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANTA YNEZ VLY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SALINAS VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS. KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 11Z, KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS JUST A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. && .MARINE...26/900 PM. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND AND TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW AVIATION...DB MARINE...HALL/SIRARD SYNOPSIS...SUKUP WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES