AFOS product AFDLOX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLOX
Product Timestamp: 2015-06-27 04:30 UTC

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652 
FXUS66 KLOX 270429
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH 
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR 
INLAND AREAS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST. 
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MUCH OF NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION REMAINS QUITE 
SHALLOW AT KLAX THIS EVENING...AROUND 800 FEET OR SO. THERE WERE 
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH SHOULD 
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THIS AREA THRU TONIGHT. S OF PT 
CONCEPTION...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED FROM CATALINA TO PALOS 
VERDES...AND THESE SHOULD ALSO EXPAND TO THE COASTAL AREAS 
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT AS MID AND HI LEVEL 
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHES IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TONIGHT 
THRU SUN....WITH SRN CA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI. AN 
UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE CA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE 
WEEKEND. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA THRU 
MON...WITH A BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA.

IT LOOKS LIKE VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND 
FOG WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS MAINLY N OF PT CONCEPTION THRU SUN.  
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED SAT THRU MON 
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE S AND 
SE. MUCH HIER PWAT VALUES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST BY THE 
NAM BY SUN AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.60 INCHES...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.25 
INCHES FOR MON. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL 
BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ON SUN...AND OVER THE L.A./VTU 
COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ON MON. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD 
PREVAIL THRU MON ALTHO THE AIR MASS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE HUMID.

TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES 
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHO SAT SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE THREE 
DAYS...AND MON THE WARMEST...WITH HIGHS TO THE CENTURY MARK IN THE 
WARMEST VLYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MONSOON 
MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA BUT PWATS EXPECTED TO PEAK MON/TUE. AGAIN 
NOTHING TO REALLY HANG OUR HAT ON IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL 
OTHER THAN SURFACE HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH WED. 850 DEWPOINTS DO 
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7C AND 9C TUE/WED SO THERE'S A LITTLE MORE LOWER 
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THU AND FRI BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW 
PROBABLY THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING IN WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE 
SO WE COULD SEE A RAMP UP OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF NEXT 
WEEK IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH AT 
LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR COOLING SLIGHTLY WED-FRI. 

&&

.AVIATION...27/0020Z.

AT 2327Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE 
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES 
CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT 
KSBP AND KSMX TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS. LOW 
CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT KSBA... 
KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB WITH THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 02Z 
AND KLAX TO 09Z AT KLGB...AND PERSISTING THRU LATE SAT MORNING TO 
EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE 
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THERE IS ALSO A 50 
PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KPRB EARLY SAT 
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THE 
AIRFIELDS THRU SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF WILL 
DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH 
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD FROM ABOUT 02Z-20Z.  
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF 
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED 
THRU SAT EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
THRU SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH AT 
LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS 
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND AND 
TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS IS 
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
773 
FXUS66 KLOX 270752
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH 
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR 
INLAND AREAS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST. 
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MUCH OF NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE INVERSION REMAINS QUITE 
SHALLOW AT KLAX THIS EVENING...AROUND 800 FEET OR SO. THERE WERE 
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH SHOULD 
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THIS AREA THRU TONIGHT. S OF PT 
CONCEPTION...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED FROM CATALINA TO PALOS 
VERDES...AND THESE SHOULD ALSO EXPAND TO THE COASTAL AREAS 
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT AS MID AND HI LEVEL 
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHES IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TONIGHT 
THRU SUN....WITH SRN CA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI. AN 
UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE CA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE 
WEEKEND. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA THRU 
MON...WITH A BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA.

IT LOOKS LIKE VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND 
FOG WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS MAINLY N OF PT CONCEPTION THRU SUN.  
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED SAT THRU MON 
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE S AND 
SE. MUCH HIER PWAT VALUES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST BY THE 
NAM BY SUN AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.60 INCHES...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.25 
INCHES FOR MON. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL 
BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ON SUN...AND OVER THE L.A./VTU 
COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ON MON. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD 
PREVAIL THRU MON ALTHO THE AIR MASS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE HUMID.

TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES 
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHO SAT SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE THREE 
DAYS...AND MON THE WARMEST...WITH HIGHS TO THE CENTURY MARK IN THE 
WARMEST VLYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MONSOON 
MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA BUT PWATS EXPECTED TO PEAK MON/TUE. AGAIN 
NOTHING TO REALLY HANG OUR HAT ON IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL 
OTHER THAN SURFACE HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH WED. 850 DEWPOINTS DO 
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7C AND 9C TUE/WED SO THERE'S A LITTLE MORE LOWER 
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THU AND FRI BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW 
PROBABLY THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING IN WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE 
SO WE COULD SEE A RAMP UP OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF NEXT 
WEEK IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH AT 
LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR COOLING SLIGHTLY WED-FRI. 

&&

.AVIATION...27/0520Z.

AT 0500Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS 900 FEET. THE 
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES 
CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANTA YNEZ VLY 
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND SALINAS 
VALLEYS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 11Z,

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
THRU SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS JUST A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS 
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH AT 
LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS 
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND AND 
TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS IS 
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD 
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES