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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF Product Timestamp: 2015-06-17 05:48 UTC
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635 FXUS64 KMAF 170548 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... Have dropped showers out of the TAFs as convection has been staying well east of the area the past few hours and expect even less tomorrow. Wind will be light and variable but generally out of the east that will keep low level moisture high. Currently have stratus along the eastern edge of the area and expect this to expand overnight with MVFR cigs at most locations. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/ DISCUSSION... Scattered showers with locally heavy rainfall will continue this afternoon and evening for most of the area. An MCV that developed from storms two nights ago continues to linger over the area and is now drifting southwest across the Rio Grande into Mexico. With daytime heating and high atmospheric moisture content, showers and a few thunderstorms have developed around the MCV as well as further north across the Permian Basin and SE NM. Expect this to continue through the evening before showers begin to diminish overnight. Tropical Storm Bill should remain well to our east and have minimal affects on our weather across W TX and SE NM. An upper level ridge to our west will build east over the next several days as Bill departs to the northeast. This will keep us in weak northerly flow aloft through the end of the week. Disturbances will move around this upper ridge and south across our region tonight and again Thursday into Friday. This could bring other rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The upper ridge will shift into the Plains early next week before moving into the Southeast U.S. later in the week. Latest long range models may be trending toward a weakness in the ridge centered over much of Texas next week. This solution is a reasonable possibility as we often see this occur in past wet summers (2007, 2010) across the state. This will be monitored as PoPs may eventually need to be increased and temps lowered if trends continue. Much warmer conditions will also be on the way as both heights and mid level temperatures increase through the week. Widespread 90's and a few 100's are expected by the weekend. Moisture will stick around so it will feel pretty muggy each afternoon. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland