217 
FXUS64 KFWD 161624 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.UPDATE...

...TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BRING MAJOR FLOODING AND TORNADOES TO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

IN MY 26 YEAR CAREER IN NORTH TEXAS...THIS IS THE SECOND TIME TO
WITNESS A MAJOR RAIN EVENT WHILE AREA LAKES ARE FILLED TO
CAPACITY. THE LAST TIME WAS MAY OF 1990...AND IT PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGHOUT A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.
DALLAS TRINITY PEAKED AT 47.10 FEET ON MAY 3...WHICH IS THE
SECOND HIGHEST PEAK AFTER MAY OF 1908 (52.60 FEET).

NOT TO SAY THAT THIS EVENT WILL EXCEED THE ABOVE LEVELS...BUT WE
FEEL THIS EVENT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 3-6 INCHES WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING 6-12 INCHES BEFORE ENDING. AREA
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THE TRINITY...WILL EXPERIENCE INFLOWS THAT
FAR EXCEED THEIR RELEASE POTENTIAL...THUS FORCING MANY RIVERS BACK
INTO MAJOR FLOOD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WITH SUCH HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35/35W
CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED.
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT PROPERTY
AND HAVE AN EVACUATION PLAN IN PLACE IF FLASH FLOODING OCCURS.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE TROPICAL
TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH A LARGER THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE REMNANTS
OF BILL MOVE NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF I-35. HELICITY VALUES
INCREASE IN THE 0-3KM 250-450 M2/S2 RANGE BY LATE EVENING ON THE
NORTH THROUGH EAST SIDE OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE LOSS OF HELICITY OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS BILL
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LEFT POPS MOSTLY AS IS AND ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOW
CEILINGS. TROPICAL STORM BILL IN NEARING LANDFALL THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD TRACK NORTH RIGHT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
TOMORROW. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOW CIGS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WILL START THE TAFS WITH VCSH THIS MORNING AND TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS. CIGS SHOULD BECOME BKN/OVC TODAY AROUND 2500FT THEN DECREASE
AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR
AFTER DARK THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REMNANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.    DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TEXAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL BE TROPICAL STORM BILL. BILL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THUS THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND LATER THIS MORNING AND
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TOMORROW MORNING AFTER IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 500 MB
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA JUST WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN INTO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THAT GOES INTO EFFECT AT 7 AM TODAY AND
GOES THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY. RATHER THAN TRY TO BREAK THE WATCH
INTO SEGMENTS FOR TIMING PURPOSES...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH PLUS RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST ZONES..AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN-MOST ZONES.

BESIDES THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TROPICAL TORNADOES TODAY AND TOMORROW 
WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH CHANCE
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. HAVE ALSO PLACED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED SOME 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THEN.
OTHERWISE... IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  73  81  73  84 /  80 100 100  70  70 
WACO, TX              84  74  83  74  85 /  90 100  90  70  70 
PARIS, TX             83  72  82  72  83 /  80  90 100  70  70 
DENTON, TX            82  72  80  72  84 /  80 100 100  70  70 
MCKINNEY, TX          83  72  81  72  83 /  80 100 100  70  70 
DALLAS, TX            83  73  82  74  84 /  80 100 100  70  70 
TERRELL, TX           84  73  82  73  84 /  80 100 100  70  70 
CORSICANA, TX         84  74  81  73  83 /  80 100 100  70  70 
TEMPLE, TX            84  72  83  73  85 /  90 100  90  70  70 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  71  80  70  85 /  80 100 100  60  50 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

/75