981 
FXUS63 KEAX 151610
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1110 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

A couple of boundaries across the forecast area making for a
somewhat tricky forecast for the rest of today into tonight. Main
cold front draped across central Iowa southwestward into southeast
Nebraska with another weaker boundary extending from east central
Kansas into the Kansas City metro area. Large area of precipitation
over eastern Nebraska and Iowa should slowly sag south into northwest Missouri
this afternoon along with the frontal boundary. With copious amounts
of low level moisture already in place it will not take much diurnal heating
for showers and thunderstorms to form. Although some areas could
remain dry this afternoon and evening broadbrush of likely PoPs still
looks good as it will be tough to pinpoint any one location for
rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

A weak surface front was situated from southern Kansas through 
northwest Missouri. Persistent ridging over the southeast has 
allowed a steady stream of deep moisture to stream into the area 
ahead of this front. This deep moisture is noted on the 00Z/15 TOP 
sounding with an observed precipitable water value around 1.8" and 
only modest mid-level drying sandwiched between rich low-level and 
upper-level moisture. A weak upper-level system will track across 
the area today and help to push the front a bit further to the 
south. With such a humid/ tropical airmass in place, (precipitable 
water values are 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal) any subtle 
lifting mechanism will produce a shower or thunderstorm. And with 
the front in the area, it's likely that there will be a greater 
coverage of precipitation today and tonight than the previous few 
days. Additionally, the high precipitable water/tropical airmass 
will lead to extremely efficient rainfall making storms. There were 
several reports from Sunday evening of over an inch of rain in less 
than hour. Forecast soundings suggest precipitable water values may 
be in the 2" to 2.25" range this evening. Still, the pattern is 
nebulous and there isn't a great deal of confidence on a widespread 
area of heavy enough rainfall for flash flooding. Rather, a 
localized flash flood threat will persist through at least today and 
tonight. While instability and shear will be limited, the low LCL 
environment and probable outflow boundaries my result in a 
limited/isolated severe risk. 

High pressure will move across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest 
Tuesday. This may bring a brief respite in the precipitation chances 
across northern Missouri. But across the southern two-thirds of the 
forecast area, the chances for scattered showers and storms will 
persist with locally heavy rain remaining possible. 

The focus then really shifts to potential remnant tropical system 
moving northward around the southeastern upper ridge. Models vary 
significantly in the timing of this system with the NAM nearly 48 
hours faster than the GFS and the ECMWF. The GEM is also faster than 
the GFS and ECMWF but the later two models are in pretty good 
agreement. And they all depict a similar track even if the timing is 
out of sync. That track is to bring it into our southern and 
southeastern zones at some point later this week. This would likely 
be a focus for major rainfall and potentially some severe weather. 
So this system will need to be watched closely as it moves ashore 
and north toward the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

A very moist atmosphere and weak winds will allow for MVFR to IFR
ceilings this morning. Will also see showers moving through although
these will be in the isolated to scattered range. By this afternoon,
scattered showers and storms are expected as a weak front sinks
southward into the vicinity of the terminals. Given the nature of
scattered nature to the precipitation, have kept thunder mention as
vicinity instead of prevailing. Amendments will need to be issued for
storms that may impact a terminal directly. Similar to this morning,
with high water content in the atmosphere, MVFR or IFR ceilings may
redevelop tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mitchell
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB