376 
FXUS64 KTSA 262302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06