National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDMAF
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF
Product Timestamp: 2015-05-10 03:30 UTC
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991 FXUS64 KMAF 100330 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1030 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015 .UPDATE... Update to increase PoPs along the eastern fringe of the forecast area and add severe thunderstorms wording. && .DISCUSSION... Will send an update shortly to rid the forecast of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains, but to also increase PoPs along the eastern fringe of the CWA. As of 10/03Z, a Pacific cold front has pushed to the eastern fringe of the forecast area where it is meeting up with a retreating dryline. The atmosphere is moist and very unstable along and east of the dryline with CAPE values conservatively around 3000 J/Kg. Mid level lapse rates are indicated to be around 8C and 0 to 6 km bulk shear 50 to 60kt above the dryline/front intersection over the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. There also appears to be a subtle shortwave trough moving toward the Big Bend region on Water Vapor imagery attended by a 110kt h25 jet. Considering all of the above, have decided to increase PoPs over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos as thunderstorms could develop in the next hour or so, conglomerate into a Mesoscale Convective System and move east and northeast into central/northern Texas overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms, considering the steep lapse rates and shear, so will include severe thunderstorm wording in the forecast. The update will follow shortly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015/ 00Z TAF issuance... No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals. Currently have gusty SW winds across most areas however speeds will diminish over the next hour or so. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015/ An upper level low has moved over the four corners region today pushing the dryline well to the east and leaving very dry air across the entire area today as well as strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains. The dryline will back up to the west tonight after sunset and is expected to make it into the far eastern CWA. All models show some convection developing along the dryline tonight and instability and shear is enough to support severe thunderstorms, but have not included severe wording in this forecast as storms will probably be developing in our far eastern counties...not becoming severe until out of our CWA. The best chance for severe storms in our area will be Terrell County and perhaps Reagan County. The upper low will move into the Central Plains tomorrow keeping dry air in place and will move into the Great Lakes Monday pushing a weak cold front south into Texas. Temperatures will be a little cooler behind the front but a quick return of southeasterly low level winds will bring higher temperatures and moisture by Tuesday. All models remain in good agreement that this moisture increase will coincide with the arrival of an upper level trough lifting northeast out of Mexico to provide good rain chances areawide Tuesday and Wednesday. It is still too far out to mention severe thunderstorms in the forecast though it will definitely be a possibility, as well as the potential for flash flooding with forecast precipitable water values more than two standard deviations above average. The trough will pass east Wednesday but another upper low will dig south along the west coast, keeping upper level flow backed from the southwest, and continue rain chances...though reduced...through the end of next week. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 50 82 52 76 / 10 0 0 0 BIG SPRING TX 54 83 56 75 / 20 10 10 10 CARLSBAD NM 46 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 62 92 62 86 / 30 10 10 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 53 86 55 83 / 10 0 0 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 46 69 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 46 79 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 43 76 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 53 84 54 78 / 10 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 54 84 54 79 / 10 0 0 0 WINK TX 50 84 53 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland