757 
FXUS61 KRLX 040639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER NIGHT. FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT THERE 
WILL ALSO BE A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALLOWS SOME RETURN FLOW. FOR TODAY...THESE 
RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR MOST OF 
THE AREA...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE 
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE 
AVAILABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF 
OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN 
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER 
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW...REACHING INTO 
THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S IN THE LOW LANDS. 

FOR TONIGHT...ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY 
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT 
ON AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST TO 
EAST...AND BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY 
MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
FRONT SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE NORTH ALONG 
WITH THE FRONT...AND CORFIDI VECTORS FOR STORM MOTION BEING WEAK 
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COMPONENT SOUTH OF EAST...WILL CONFINE POPS IN 
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE FAR NORTH LATER 
TONIGHT. 

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IS MARGINAL AND WILL 
OMIT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND 
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 

WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA 
BOUNDARY WITH PBZ THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL DICTATE THE CHANCES 
FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES OVER 
NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. ALSO KEEPING POPS IN 
THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE REGIONS IN OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. 

CONVECTION MAY OR MAY NOT INITIATE IN OUR CWA...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 
VECTORS INDICATE STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTH. 
THIS IS TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE FLOW THURSDAY...AND HAVE ONLY 
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 

SPC KEEPS ANY RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WELL NORTH AND WEST FOR THE 
CWA. 

IN THE MEANT TIE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARDS...WITH THE 
LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP 
OUT OF THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS.  A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST 
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THE 
BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS AN AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE 
FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
 SHOULD BE IN CONTROL.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN 
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CU THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE. NO THUNDER. 
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT WILL BEING VFR 
CEILINGS 5000-8000 FEET IN THE NORTH...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER... 
AFFECTING PKB AND CKB. OTHERWISE...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/04/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV