AFOS product AFDLKN
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLKN
Product Timestamp: 2015-05-01 17:50 UTC

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FXUS65 KLKN 011750
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM SPRING WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE SEASON EVEN AT NIGHT. THE WARMTH AND SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHEAST NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NORMAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...EXTENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO NORTHEAST
NEVADA AND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NYE COUNTY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 510 AM / 

UPDATE...THE ASOS AT WINNEMUCCA IS NOW FULLY OPERATIONAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 227 AM / 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP...SOME DEBRIS CLOUD IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA AT
THIS TIME. NOTHING IS NOTED ON RADAR.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHERN NEVADA
SITTING BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND STREAMLINES...STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
AREA OF CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW
BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE LIGHT WINDS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

500MB HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE DURING SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE NEVADA
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FORECAST TO SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FAIRLY CLOSE TO ITS POSITION ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
CONVERGENT AXIS STILL SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL
MEAN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN 
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER NEW 00Z EC MODEL DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY 
AFTER TUESDAY...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH GFS AND GEFS SOLUTION AS THE 
PREFERRED LONG TERM MODEL OF CHOICE THIS PERIOD. MORE OF AN EARLY
SUMMER PATTERN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW'S
WILL BE AROUND .50" WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOWEVER NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THESE SHOWERS.
LI'S EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM -1 TO -3. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN
WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE.

AVIATION...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KELY AND KEKO WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE 
NEAR THESE STORMS...DRIER CONDITIONS AT KWMC AND KTPH.

EQUIPMENT...THE ASOS AT WINNEMUCCA IS STILL EXPERIENCING A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. AT AND T IS AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND IS
CURRENTLY WORKING ON IT. TIME ESTIMATED BACK TO SERVICE IS NOT
KNOWN.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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