767 
FXUS62 KILM 282320 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
720 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...VERY QUIET EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME CIRRUS SNEAKING IN FROM
THE SW...OTHERWISE NO WEATHER OF NOTE. NO CHANGE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION MOVING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY 8 AM
AS FAR NORTH AS FLORENCE & MYRTLE BEACH.

COMPARED TO 00Z THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BECOME (AS A WHOLE) MUCH
DRIER IN THE 06-12Z WINDOW TONIGHT. THE CULPRIT APPEARS TO BE THIS
MORNING'S MCS THAT RAN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRYING AND
STABILIZATION BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS
LIKELY STILL TOO RAPID WITH MOISTURE RETURN. GIVEN THE LESSER
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WE SHOULD HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
HOURS LONGER ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA.

I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT 3-5 DEGREES
LOWER...BUT AM STILL 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CHILLY 12Z GFS AND NAM
MOS NUMBERS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY... VERY BUSY UPPER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN U.S.
MAKING FOR SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. A HUGE BARELY MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL BE DIVING NEARLY
DUE SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE
PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS FOR SOME TIME WILL BE OPENING UP
AND PROGRESSING EAST. THE LATTER TWO FEATURES WILL HAVE SOME
INTERACTION IN PART MODIFIED BY THE UNWILLINGNESS OF THE FORMER TO
PROGRESS EAST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL HAVE A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE REFLECTION THAT CROSSES FLORIDA. THE CONFUSING ASPECT
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS THAT IT WILL PICK UP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE BRINGING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
BRING THE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SO
WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THE QPF HAS BEEN
REDUCED. WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PROBLEM IS A WEAKENED LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PAIRED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL WAVE
NOW WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PREVENT DEEPER COUPLED ASCENT. THE
UPPER WAVE WEAKENS SO RAPIDLY AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT BETWEEN THE
UPSTREAM DIVING VORT AND THE STALWART NEW ENGLAND LOW. THIS LEADS
TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY'S FORECAST AND THE
SPEED AT WHICH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE LOCALLY. THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE SURFACE WAVE OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH AS A WHOLE REMAINS TOO
CONFLUENT/POSITIVELY TILTED TO SUCCEED. ALSO THERE WILL BE A DRY
MOVING UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE LANDMASS IS MORE LIKELY TO
FIND ITSELF IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION. HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IT IS TOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
ZONES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY AND THE COLD AIR
ALOFT BEARING DOWN UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF 5H LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING FRI BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW. INSTABILITY UNDER
THE LOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BUT THERE IS A DISTINCT LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
BUT AT THAT POINT THE LOW IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THE 5H LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN UNDER WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MIGRATING TO NEAR BERMUDA BY MIDWEEK.

ALOFT THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN...RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK
RIDGING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO START THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LIGHT S WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH 12Z BUT REMAIN VFR. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE KMYR/KFLO/KCRE TERMINALS AROUND 11-12Z WITH MID LEVEL CIGS
DEVELOPING. 
 
RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. VFR MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KLBT/KILM. DURING THE AFTERNOON
MVFR WILL DEVELOP AT KFLO AND IFR AT KCRE/KMYR WITH BEST CONFIDENCE
KMYR. LIGHT WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL BECOME E...THEN GRADUALLY
BACK TO NE 5-10KT EXCEPT 10-15KT AT KMYR AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITTING DIRECTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR
LESS. THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS HAS HELPED DIMINISH
THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AWAY FROM SHORE...WHILE
NEARSHORE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION HAS ALLOWED ONSHORE WINDS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST AND
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY
EASTERLY...STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONGER DUE TO GREATER DISTANCE FROM
THE HIGH.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST.
THESE SHOULD FALL TO 1-2 FEET OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE 4-5
SECOND WIND WAVE DYING AWAY WITH THE 8-9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT
ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES UP ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AN AMORPHOUS LOW WILL BE
CONGEALING OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEPENDING ON THE SHAPE, SPEED, AND TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LOCAL
WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE A FEW KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AND SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHTER WINDS BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND SO STILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER ON THURSDAY. THE
PROXIMITY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALWAYS LEADS TO A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CASE ON THURSDAY WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO OFFSHORE. FORTUNATELY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WIND AND SEAS NEVER BUILD ABOVE ANY
THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL KEEP DOMINANT
PERIODS RATHER SHORT AND CONDITIONS CHOPPY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT AND BEGIN BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SPEEDS DROPPING FROM A SOLID 20 KT
FRI TO 10 KT OR LESS LATER SAT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT BUT
GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III/MBB

771 
FXUS62 KILM 282320
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
720 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...VERY QUIET EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME CIRRUS SNEAKING IN FROM
THE SW...OTHERWISE NO WEATHER OF NOTE. NO CHANGE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION MOVING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY 8 AM
AS FAR NORTH AS FLORENCE & MYRTLE BEACH.

COMPARED TO 00Z THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BECOME (AS A WHOLE) MUCH
DRIER IN THE 06-12Z WINDOW TONIGHT. THE CULPRIT APPEARS TO BE THIS
MORNING'S MCS THAT RAN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRYING AND
STABILIZATION BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS
LIKELY STILL TOO RAPID WITH MOISTURE RETURN. GIVEN THE LESSER
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WE SHOULD HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
HOURS LONGER ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA.

I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT 3-5 DEGREES
LOWER...BUT AM STILL 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CHILLY 12Z GFS AND NAM
MOS NUMBERS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY... VERY BUSY UPPER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN U.S.
MAKING FOR SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. A HUGE BARELY MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL BE DIVING NEARLY
DUE SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE
PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS FOR SOME TIME WILL BE OPENING UP
AND PROGRESSING EAST. THE LATTER TWO FEATURES WILL HAVE SOME
INTERACTION IN PART MODIFIED BY THE UNWILLINGNESS OF THE FORMER TO
PROGRESS EAST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL HAVE A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE REFLECTION THAT CROSSES FLORIDA. THE CONFUSING ASPECT
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS THAT IT WILL PICK UP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE BRINGING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
BRING THE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SO
WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THE QPF HAS BEEN
REDUCED. WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PROBLEM IS A WEAKENED LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PAIRED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL WAVE
NOW WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PREVENT DEEPER COUPLED ASCENT. THE
UPPER WAVE WEAKENS SO RAPIDLY AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT BETWEEN THE
UPSTREAM DIVING VORT AND THE STALWART NEW ENGLAND LOW. THIS LEADS
TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY'S FORECAST AND THE
SPEED AT WHICH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE LOCALLY. THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE SURFACE WAVE OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH AS A WHOLE REMAINS TOO
CONFLUENT/POSITIVELY TILTED TO SUCCEED. ALSO THERE WILL BE A DRY
MOVING UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE LANDMASS IS MORE LIKELY TO
FIND ITSELF IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION. HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IT IS TOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
ZONES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY AND THE COLD AIR
ALOFT BEARING DOWN UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF 5H LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING FRI BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW. INSTABILITY UNDER
THE LOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BUT THERE IS A DISTINCT LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
BUT AT THAT POINT THE LOW IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THE 5H LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN UNDER WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MIGRATING TO NEAR BERMUDA BY MIDWEEK.

ALOFT THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN...RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK
RIDGING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO START THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR A BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING THE
AFTERNOON...DEBRIS FROM A LARGE COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW MAY BE REPLACE WITH A SOUTHEAST RESULTANT ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY DAYBREAK...LOOK
FOR A MID CLOUD CEILING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECTING
NORTHWARD FROM A WARM FRONT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THE EASTERN
HALF BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITTING DIRECTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR
LESS. THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS HAS HELPED DIMINISH
THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AWAY FROM SHORE...WHILE
NEARSHORE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION HAS ALLOWED ONSHORE WINDS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST AND
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY
EASTERLY...STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONGER DUE TO GREATER DISTANCE FROM
THE HIGH.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST.
THESE SHOULD FALL TO 1-2 FEET OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE 4-5
SECOND WIND WAVE DYING AWAY WITH THE 8-9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT
ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES UP ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AN AMORPHOUS LOW WILL BE
CONGEALING OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEPENDING ON THE SHAPE, SPEED, AND TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LOCAL
WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE A FEW KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AND SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHTER WINDS BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND SO STILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER ON THURSDAY. THE
PROXIMITY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALWAYS LEADS TO A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CASE ON THURSDAY WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO OFFSHORE. FORTUNATELY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WIND AND SEAS NEVER BUILD ABOVE ANY
THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL KEEP DOMINANT
PERIODS RATHER SHORT AND CONDITIONS CHOPPY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT AND BEGIN BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SPEEDS DROPPING FROM A SOLID 20 KT
FRI TO 10 KT OR LESS LATER SAT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT BUT
GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III/MBB