211 
FXUS64 KMAF 252335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail, with gusty winds southwest winds
diminishing after sunset this evening, and becoming gusty once
again by mid-morning on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday 
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind 
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the 
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off 
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next 
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the 
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As 
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly 
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount 
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains 
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading 
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move 
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A 
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through 
the region during the evening.  

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows 
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and 
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and 
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe 
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north 
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the 
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end 
of the week as ridge builds over the area.
 
Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return 
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across 
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north 
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip 
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening 
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains, 
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to 
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy 
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup 
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning. 

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns 
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west 
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire 
Danger Statement. 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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