545 
FXUS63 KOAX 210430
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WINDS HAVE DECREASED COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRED AT 6 PM AND RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 PM. WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND UPDATE PRODUCTS AGAIN. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) 
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH ABOUT 00Z 
THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. RED FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 
7 PM.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL  OVERNIGHT... 
WITH SOME LOSS OF COVERAGE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. TEMPS ARE FORECAST 
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...AND IN SOME CASES BELOW FREEZING 
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES... 
WE ARE PROBABLY STILL JUST SLIGHTLY TOO EARLY FOR ANY FREEZE 
HEADLINES SINCE THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS IN 
LATE APRIL TO EARLY MAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) 
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WITH MODELS SHOWING LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALTERING TO TWO UPPER LEVEL 
LOWS...ONE ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
OTHER SITUATED OVER ERN CANADA...NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL ENSURE CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S... AND AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY.
AS FOR TUESDAY THOUGH...DECENT MIXING WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE LOW/MID 60. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT
TERM PDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY 
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SAT...THEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 

GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY EXPANDING 
EWD OUT OF WRN KS/WRN NEB LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THEN ENVELOPING THE 
CWA THRU FRIDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO POTENT VORT MAX MOVING THRU 
KS ALONG WITH AXIS OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING.  IN 
ADDITION...APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AS WELL THAT GENEROUS PCPN 
AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA. GIVEN MODEL 
SIMILARITY...HAVE DECIDED TO NUDGE POPS JUST A BIT DURING THIS TIME. 

NEXT CHANCE COMES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW 
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. SMALL POPS ARE 
ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE GOING FCST SO NO CHANGES NEEDED. 

AS FOR TEMPS...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHILLY CONDITIONS THRU THE MAJORITY 
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S...THEN A MODEST 
WARM UP NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SECONDARY BAND OF
BKN-OVC LAYER MID CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AFTER 12Z. ANOTHER SCT-BKN
LAYER POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND WEAK
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO MOVES
THROUGH AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO
15-25KTS. CLEARING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT