546 
FXUS61 KCLE 050126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
NORTHERN LAKESHORE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE WEATHER
COMPLEXES MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES WITH
THE SETTING SUN. WE WILL THEN MONITOR THE JET ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
LAKE ERIE INTO NW PA TOWARD SUNRISE WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
NY/PA BORDER...ESPECIALLY NEAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE ALONG NW
PA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO
BE SHORT LIVED BEFORE TURNING OVER THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 60 AS THE AREA IS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THERMAL MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD SUPPORT WIND 
GUSTS APPROACHING 30MPH.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THE DRIER AIR IN THE REGION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
ERODE...BUT BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE RAIN SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
AREA...INCREASING THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND LIFT WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET
COINCIDES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE COUNTIES NORTH OF MANSFIELD COULD
SEE MAINLY ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. 

THE SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST THE
BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS APPEARS IT IS GOING TO 
BE WET EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE TRIES TO BECOME 
PERSISTENT DURING THIS PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE 
AS IT LAYS ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL STREAM EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AN 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY FRIDAY. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE 
SHOULD START TO SEE MORE SPRING TIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA 
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY. 
PROBLEM IS...NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY COULD VERY WELL 
KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN I WHAT I HAVE IN THE FORECAST. 
THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN TO SEE HOW FAR THE COLD AIR PENETRATES 
INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN DECREASE 
SOME AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
AFTER DAYBREAK...AND REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 05/18Z.
EASTERN SITES SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY OVERALL THOUGH. THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR...THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
MVFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KERI BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ICE IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALL OF THE ICE APPEARS TO BE GONE IN THE WESTERN 
BASIN. ICE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE APPEARS TO BE 
ROTTING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. I THINK WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DROP 
IN ICE COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY.  THE FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE ICE DOWN LAKE INTO THE OPEN 
WATERS HELPING TO BREAK IT UP. IN THE MEAN TIME...WHERE THE LAKE IS 
OPEN...WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
PERIOD UNTIL TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CAUSE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
TO BE ISSUED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS DO FINALLY DIMINISH BY 
THURSDAY AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...LOMBARDY