National Weather Service Raw Text Product

519 
FXUS61 KCLE 021803
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
203 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER BEING REPORTED AS WELL. BEHIND
THIS LINE THERE WILL BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AS WELL. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
ALOFT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST
IT WILL GET BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT. HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS SOME
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO. LOCAL SCHEMES SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL GO WITH 40 MPH
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED.  MODELS 
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.  
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS.  FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF 
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE 
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY.  AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO 
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY 
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE LAST BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT 
REACHING THE TOLEDO AREA BY 22Z AND ERI TOWARDS 00Z. CONDITIONS THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WITH 
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DROPPING AS LOW AS IFR. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 
WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO 
WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR 
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING BUT IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN LATER TONIGHT 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. 

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
NON VFR RETURNING MONDAY. 

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY 
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST 
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE 
LAKE.  NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN 
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB