085 
FXUS64 KMOB 151955 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

..UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST
HIGHS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. HAVE UPDATED TODAYS
HIGHS FOR THESE WITH OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ 

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
PATCHES OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED TODAY THEN SWITCHES TO LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND TO THE TN VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. MEANWHILE..A RATHER STRONG UPPER JET
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. OVERALL FORCING IS NOT STRONG...BUT THIS
FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY
THE HRRR ACTUALLY DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE ANY CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS
BELOW 20% GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY FORCING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT. A
BLEND OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BOUNDARY AT LEAST MAKING IT
HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S OVER
THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOW COOL LOWS GET TONIGHT WILL
HINGE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S NE WITH MID TO UPPER
50S FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. 34/JFB

(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE 500 MB FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME ZONAL ALONG THE GULF COAST AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED/MINIMAL ACROSS OUR AREA SO NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS REGION
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE PIEDMONT
REGION BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING OVER THE GRAND
BANKS AND MOVING NORTHEAST WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR
AREA TUESDAY. THE EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE A CONTINUANCE OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN TREND
PROGRESSIVELY MILDER TO AROUND 60 BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS DEEP LAYER
HUMIDITY INCREASES ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THE 500 MB FLOW OVER THE REGION BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS LOOKS IN CLOSER PHASE AS TO WHERE THEY
ARE BRINGING THE UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURE POSITIONS. WE ARE NOW MORE
CONFIDENT IN PINNING DOWN ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE MID- SOUTH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST PAST US THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BY THE WEEKEND. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING
1.5 INCHES AND LI CLOSE TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THIS WOULD
PROVIDE FORCING OF CONVECTION SUFFICIENT FOR CHANCE CATEGORY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE WAS AN EARLY
INDICATION IN THE MOS OUTPUT BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THAT
IS....8 DAYS AND BEYOND...THAT WE COULD SEE A COOL SNAP. WHILE BY NO
MEANS CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IN FUTURE RUNS...BUT THE NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS DO SHOW A
LARGE 500 MB TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EAST COAST...A LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TERM TO THIS EARLY FIRST LOOK. IT COULD CHANGE THOUGH SO
WE WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON IT. 77/BD

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN TODAY...BUT WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS TIME...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS IN BAYS/SOUNDS...ESPECIALLY MOBILE BAY. WINDS BECOME PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE WED/THU AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG A FRONT THAT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  55  81  59  81 /  10  05  05  05  05 
PENSACOLA   78  57  79  61  80 /  10  05  05  05  05 
DESTIN      75  60  78  62  78 /  10  00  00  05  05 
EVERGREEN   80  51  81  54  85 /  10  00  00  05  05 
WAYNESBORO  77  52  81  58  82 /  10  05  05  05  05 
CAMDEN      79  50  81  54  84 /  10  00  00  05  05 
CRESTVIEW   81  51  83  54  85 /  10  00  00  05  05 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$