614 
FXUS62 KFFC 101149 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
749 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...  

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 433 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA. SFC LOW ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THIS MORNING LIFTS
INTO KENTUCKY LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BETTER MOISTURE
SETS UP WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART AND NORTH OF THE CWA.
DESPITE THIS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE
WHOLE CWA...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR LOOKING TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONVECTION BUT MUCH WEAKER. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SKY AND TEMP
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL PLAY SOME PART IN
DEVELOPMENT TOO. CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA APPEAR TO
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING THEM REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA MAY SCATTER OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS...STILL THINK SOME
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND. IN ANY CASE...JUST HOW
MUCH WE CAN SCATTER OUT THE BKN AND OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THUS HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT THE SFC LOW HAS BEEN ABSORBED 
INTO THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE NE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO LOOK 
SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE DEEPER 
LAYER MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS GEORGIA. INSTABILITY IS A GOOD BIT 
HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH VALUES REACHING 700 J/KG. 
THUS HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS 
NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LESS THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER 
OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE 
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH THE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY...EVEN SO AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 433 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PATTERN. STILL LOOKING FOR A WET
PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO WEEKEND. STRONG WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY SATURDAY. CONVECTION IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT HAVE LIMITED IT TO THE FRINGES OF THE
WEDGE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD HELP PUSH A SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF DRYING TAKING PLACE WITH
THE ECMWF DRIER THAN THE GFS. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL
GA FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF PERIODS TO COMPROMISE.

41


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS
TO BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF. ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DID PULL OUT THE
SCT020 FROM ATL AS IT LOOKS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS MORNING.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SHIFT FROM SE TO SSW AT ATL BUT COULD
SEE A LITTLE WAVERING AROUND 180 DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  57  77  59 /  30  20  40  30 
ATLANTA         73  61  75  60 /  30  20  50  40 
BLAIRSVILLE     64  55  70  54 /  60  60  70  60 
CARTERSVILLE    72  58  72  58 /  50  60  70  60 
COLUMBUS        80  60  79  64 /  30  20  50  40 
GAINESVILLE     69  57  73  58 /  40  40  50  40 
MACON           82  58  80  62 /  30  20  40  30 
ROME            71  58  71  57 /  60  70  70  60 
PEACHTREE CITY  76  57  76  60 /  30  20  50  40 
VIDALIA         83  60  82  64 /  30  20  30  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...11