284 
FXUS63 KEAX 062146
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The main takeaway for the next week is a prolonged period of above 
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. Just an honorable 
mention by the NAM and GFS for some light rain Sunday evening.  
Main challenge will be just how warm can it get. Today, is a prime 
example as gusty southwesterly winds tapped into the much drier and 
warmer air above the 925mb level. 

Northwest flow aloft from the Rockies through the Great Lakes will 
continue for most of the forecast period. A fast moving clipper type 
system will zip through the Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes 
later tonight and Saturday morning. An attendant cold front will 
swing into northern MO Saturday morning but the cold air will lag 
the frontal passage. Pronounced westerly downslope flow will 
dominate the CWA except over the far northeastern CWA. Inspection of 
the this mornings 12z soundings indicated we mixed air from above 
the 925mb level, resulting in upward adjustments being made to the 
high temperatures. In addition, upstream temperatures from central 
NE through central KS reached the lower/middle 60s. Don't think we 
will see as much mixing on Saturday but that westerly downslope flow 
favors raising max temperatures for Saturday. 

While there are some model differences in the evolution of the above 
noted cold front the general idea is the boundary will stall close 
to the southern border of the CWA Saturday evening then drift 
northward before shifting southward again Sunday afternoon/evening. 
So, high temperatures may be a bit tricky on Sunday, especially over 
northern MO. In addition, the NAM/GFS drag some light precipitation 
across IA and northern MO Sunday evening although the ECWMF keeps it 
further north. Will leave forecast dry for now and wait for 
additional model continuity with later runs.

After a minor cool down on Monday envision warm air advection 
sending temperatures back into the 60s for the rest of the forecast. 
Could even see a few 70 degree readings on Wednesday. However, it 
appears the main h8 thermal ridge will be forced further north 
through NE and IA in response to a storm system over the Gulf of 
Mexico lifting northward. This system could eventually lift the 
precipitation shield into the CWA but have low confidence currently 
but worth monitoring.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period with SW winds around
15 kts, gusting to 20 kts at times through Friday afternoon. Will
keep an eye on the potential for LLWS tonight, particularly between
08Z- 10Z. However, low-level jet is not as impressive as previous
night, and surface winds around 10 kts should mitigate this
potential. Weak cold front will push through just after the TAF
period, but will remain dry behind the boundary.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh