417 
FXUS61 KBGM 181009
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
509 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY OR THIS 
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...AND SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...ONCE AGAIN...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE... SAT IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLDNS FROM W TO E EARLY THIS MRNG. THUS...ANY EARLY
MORNING SUNSHINE OVER OUR FAR ERN ZNS...SHOULD FADE BEHIND
THICKENING CLDS IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. 

AREAS OF LGT SNOW/FLRYS PREVAIL ACRS WRN NY/PA ATTM...AND WE
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BUILD EWD ACRS CNY/NE PA BY 15-18Z...IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED WAA FORCING. ACCUMS ASSOCD WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE LGT IN NATURE...EASILY LESS THAN 1".

LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE (AFTER 21-22Z)...THE FOCUS
TURNS TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRNTL BNDRY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHWRS AND EMBEDDED HVYR SQUALLS. FAIRLY STEEP LOW
TO MID-LVL LR'S...AS WELL AS DECENT CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRNT...AND WELL DEFINED DPVA ALOFT...ALL SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
HI-RES MODEL RADAR SIMULATIONS ALSO AGREE WELL THAT A NE-SW
ORIENTED BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW SHWRS/SQUALLS IMPACTS MUCH OF THE
CWA IN THE 21Z WED-03Z THU TIME FRAME. MANY AREAS SHOULD PICK UP A
QUICK 1-2" OF SNOW...BUT LOCALIZED 3-4" AMTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. 

LTR THIS EVE...SNOW SQUALLS ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN...AND STG CAA
SHOULD ENSUE BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRNT. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK THU SHOULD
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 0F OVER MUCH OF THE RGN...WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE. FOR THIS REASON...WE'VE ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVSY FOR ALL OF CNY/NE PA...STARTING AT 09Z THU.

LES MULTI-BANDS ARE ALSO LIKELY LTR TNT...GENERALLY WITHIN A
280-310 VECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE... THIS SHOULD BE A BITTERLY COLD PD ONCE AGN. 

PROGGED 925/850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NO BETTER THAN 5-10F DURG
THE DAY THU...WITH READINGS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO THU NGT AND
EARLY FRI...BEFORE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABV ZERO FRI AFTN. TEMPS FRI NGT ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS IT DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY CLDS INCREASE OUT AHD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HOW
FAST WAA DVLPS. FOR NOW...WE'RE STILL ADVERTISING MIN TEMPS FRI
NGT BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE...FIGURING THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING DURG THE EVE HRS.

THE PRES GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHT ENUF THU-THU NGT FOR GUSTY WINDS
(GENERALLY 15-25 KT) AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. PROGGED
APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEAR -15 TO -20F ON THU...BEFORE
PLUNGING AS LOW AS -30F THU NGT/EARLY FRI. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ON THU...WITH A WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM
00-15Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX DURG THE DAY FRI.

REGARDING LES POTENTIAL...280-300 BLYR WINDS SHOULD DIRECT LES
BANDS INTO ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA CNTYS ON THU INTO THU NGT...PERHAPS
EDGING INTO SRN CAYUGA/NRN CORTLAND/NRN CHENANGO/OTSEGO CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE...AT LEAST EARLY
ON THU...POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH PROFILES...SOME DIR SHEAR WITHIN THE
MIXED LYR...AND A PARTIALLY ICE-COVERED LK ONT...SHOULD ALL BE
DETRACTING FACTORS...AND WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT THIS FROM BEING
A MAJOR EVENT. FOR NOW...WE'RE ADVERTISING 2-4" AMTS OVER MOST OF
THE ABV DESCRIBED AREAS...FOR THU AND THU NGT. ON FRI...LES SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO FLRYS...DUE TO DRY ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF
THE SFC-850 MB RIDGE AXES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BE OVR CWA FRI NIGHT THEN BUILD EWRD BY 12Z SAT. LEE-
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WL OCCUR AT THIS TIME ACRS THE SRN PLAINS AND
JOIN FORCES WITH SFC TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS CANADA ON SAT/SAT
NGT. HV EXPANDED LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF CWA ON SAT NGT. SFC
FRONT MVS THRU DRG THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE SE
ASSOC WITH BNDRY AND NORTH ASSOC WITH POTENTIAL LK EFFECT ON NW
FLOW. LK EFFECT CONTS SUN NGT WITH HIPRES AND DRY AIR BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WHILE NEXT SYSTEM WRAPS
UP ACRS CANADA. 

AS FOR TEMPS, BLO NORMAL TEMPS WL PREVAIL THO SITES MAY APPCH
CLIMO VALUES ON SUNDAY AHD OF SFC FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR NOW WITH A LOW VFR
DECK JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
5KFT THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AND CIGS TO
MVFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. BRIEFLY HEAVY SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH VSBYS UNDER 1SM. A BIT TOO FAR TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS RIGHT
NOW, AND INDICATED A GENERAL 1SM TO 2SM INSTEAD. AFTER 03Z DRIER
AIR SHOULD HELP KELM/KBGM AND KAVP TO RETURN TO MVFR VSBYS/CIGS.
IFR VSBYS LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM KITH NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 

WINDS LGT/VRB OR CALM NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER THIS MORNING INCREASE TO
AROUND 5KTS FROM THE SOUTH. WIND SHIFT TO W AND NW TOWARDS 00Z
THU.

.OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WITH IFR SNOW THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND
IT MOSTLY IN NY. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IN -SN.

SUN...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...HEDEN/TAC

214 
FXUS61 KBGM 181009
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
509 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY OR THIS 
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...AND SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...ONCE AGAIN...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE... SAT IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLDNS FROM W TO E EARLY THIS MRNG. THUS...ANY EARLY
MORNING SUNSHINE OVER OUR FAR ERN ZNS...SHOULD FADE BEHIND
THICKENING CLDS IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. 

AREAS OF LGT SNOW/FLRYS PREVAIL ACRS WRN NY/PA ATTM...AND WE
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BUILD EWD ACRS CNY/NE PA BY 15-18Z...IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED WAA FORCING. ACCUMS ASSOCD WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE LGT IN NATURE...EASILY LESS THAN 1".

LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE (AFTER 21-22Z)...THE FOCUS
TURNS TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRNTL BNDRY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHWRS AND EMBEDDED HVYR SQUALLS. FAIRLY STEEP LOW
TO MID-LVL LR'S...AS WELL AS DECENT CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRNT...AND WELL DEFINED DPVA ALOFT...ALL SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
HI-RES MODEL RADAR SIMULATIONS ALSO AGREE WELL THAT A NE-SW
ORIENTED BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW SHWRS/SQUALLS IMPACTS MUCH OF THE
CWA IN THE 21Z WED-03Z THU TIME FRAME. MANY AREAS SHOULD PICK UP A
QUICK 1-2" OF SNOW...BUT LOCALIZED 3-4" AMTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. 

LTR THIS EVE...SNOW SQUALLS ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN...AND STG CAA
SHOULD ENSUE BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRNT. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK THU SHOULD
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 0F OVER MUCH OF THE RGN...WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE. FOR THIS REASON...WE'VE ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVSY FOR ALL OF CNY/NE PA...STARTING AT 09Z THU.

LES MULTI-BANDS ARE ALSO LIKELY LTR TNT...GENERALLY WITHIN A
280-310 VECTOR.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE... THIS SHOULD BE A BITTERLY COLD PD ONCE AGN. 

PROGGED 925/850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NO BETTER THAN 5-10F DURG
THE DAY THU...WITH READINGS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO THU NGT AND
EARLY FRI...BEFORE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABV ZERO FRI AFTN. TEMPS FRI NGT ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS IT DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY CLDS INCREASE OUT AHD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HOW
FAST WAA DVLPS. FOR NOW...WE'RE STILL ADVERTISING MIN TEMPS FRI
NGT BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE...FIGURING THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING DURG THE EVE HRS.

THE PRES GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHT ENUF THU-THU NGT FOR GUSTY WINDS
(GENERALLY 15-25 KT) AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. PROGGED
APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEAR -15 TO -20F ON THU...BEFORE
PLUNGING AS LOW AS -30F THU NGT/EARLY FRI. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ON THU...WITH A WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM
00-15Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX DURG THE DAY FRI.

REGARDING LES POTENTIAL...280-300 BLYR WINDS SHOULD DIRECT LES
BANDS INTO ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA CNTYS ON THU INTO THU NGT...PERHAPS
EDGING INTO SRN CAYUGA/NRN CORTLAND/NRN CHENANGO/OTSEGO CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE...AT LEAST EARLY
ON THU...POOR CRYSTAL GROWTH PROFILES...SOME DIR SHEAR WITHIN THE
MIXED LYR...AND A PARTIALLY ICE-COVERED LK ONT...SHOULD ALL BE
DETRACTING FACTORS...AND WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT THIS FROM BEING
A MAJOR EVENT. FOR NOW...WE'RE ADVERTISING 2-4" AMTS OVER MOST OF
THE ABV DESCRIBED AREAS...FOR THU AND THU NGT. ON FRI...LES SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO FLRYS...DUE TO DRY ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF
THE SFC-850 MB RIDGE AXES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BE OVR CWA FRI NIGHT THEN BUILD EWRD BY 12Z SAT. LEE-
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WL OCCUR AT THIS TIME ACRS THE SRN PLAINS AND
JOIN FORCES WITH SFC TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS CANADA ON SAT/SAT
NGT. HV EXPANDED LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF CWA ON SAT NGT. SFC
FRONT MVS THRU DRG THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE SE
ASSOC WITH BNDRY AND NORTH ASSOC WITH POTENTIAL LK EFFECT ON NW
FLOW. LK EFFECT CONTS SUN NGT WITH HIPRES AND DRY AIR BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WHILE NEXT SYSTEM WRAPS
UP ACRS CANADA. 

AS FOR TEMPS, BLO NORMAL TEMPS WL PREVAIL THO SITES MAY APPCH
CLIMO VALUES ON SUNDAY AHD OF SFC FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR NOW WITH A LOW VFR
DECK JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
5KFT THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AND CIGS TO
MVFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. BRIEFLY HEAVY SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH VSBYS UNDER 1SM. A BIT TOO FAR TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS RIGHT
NOW, AND INDICATED A GENERAL 1SM TO 2SM INSTEAD. AFTER 03Z DRIER
AIR SHOULD HELP KELM/KBGM AND KAVP TO RETURN TO MVFR VSBYS/CIGS.
IFR VSBYS LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM KITH NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 

WINDS LGT/VRB OR CALM NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER THIS MORNING INCREASE TO
AROUND 5KTS FROM THE SOUTH. WIND SHIFT TO W AND NW TOWARDS 00Z
THU.

.OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WITH IFR SNOW THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND
IT MOSTLY IN NY. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IN -SN.

SUN...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...HEDEN/TAC