963 
FXUS65 KTFX 131107
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
407 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...An upper level ridge with its axis along
the Continental Divide will result in dry and mild conditions
today. Some high level Pacific moisture may make its way through
the ridge but plenty of sunshine will be the rule. The ridge
breaks down overnight as an upper trof moves across the Pacific
Northwest. Showers will develop across the Hi-Line early Saturday
morning and then become more widespread across the area by
afternoon. Temperatures will be warm enough for precipitation to
remain as rain but a mix of rain and snow is possible along the
International Boundary. The flow aloft becomes northwest again on
Sunday with additional shortwave energy moving across the area.
With cooler air being advected into the area, scattered rain
and/or snow showers will continue. Little snow accumulation is
expected over the plains Sunday afternoon with an inch or two
possible in the mountains. Near record high temperatures are
possible some areas today. Temperatures will begin a cooling trend
Saturday though readings will remain above seasonal averages
averages through the weekend.

Sunday night through Friday...Models continue to remain confident in 
the change to a more seasonal cooler and moist pattern for the first 
part of the work week. The fast moving shortwave that impacts the 
area Monday should create widespread light snow in the 1-3 inch 
range across the plains of Central and North Central Montana, while 
higher amounts appear possible over the Mountains of Central 
Montana, and to a lesser extent the Mountains of the Rocky Mountain 
Front and Mountains of Southwest Montana. After the snow stops by 
early Tuesday Morning the major forecast models begin to diverge in 
their solutions. Both try to move the Upper level ridge back inland 
with limited success for different reasons. The ECMWF brings an 
interesting cut off low that is trapped in the steering flow across 
the Northern Great Basin enroute to the Four Corners region. This 
path doesn't directly impact our part of Montana, but it does limit 
the westward position of the upper level ridge and reinforces the 
northwesterly flow aloft, albeit, weak through the rest of the week. 
The GFS appears to take the same energy up and over the ridge, 
through Canada and then back down across our area as a very fast 
moving shortwave, that flattens the ridge and produces another cool 
blast of air for Central Montana towards the end of the week. 
Regardless of the solution that pans out, the northwest flow aloft 
will allow for an increased chance in moisture, however light, with 
more seasonal temperatures for much of the time with nothing looking 
unseasonably cold either. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
A few sprinkles will continue to move southeastward through Central 
MT thru 08z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the 
period...with just some mid/high level cloudiness. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  38  54  30 /   0   0  30  30 
CTB  57  34  45  26 /   0   0  30  20 
HLN  60  37  55  32 /   0   0  30  20 
BZN  57  32  53  27 /   0   0  20  20 
WEY  44  26  41  25 /   0   0  20  20 
DLN  59  37  55  30 /   0   0  20  10 
HVR  52  28  42  25 /   0   0  30  20 
LWT  57  33  50  26 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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