634 
FXUS65 KABQ 112347 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
447 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE PROVIDING SOUTHERLY TARGET FOR
COLD FRONTAL PENETRATION OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH COLD
FRONT OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 18Z MONDAY.
TROUGH ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO
CROSS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z MONDAY. COMBINATION OF BOTH
FEATURES WILL SET UP MONDAY DAYTIME WIDESPREAD SNOW COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND MOVING EAST THROUGH 00Z LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOW COVERAGE AND LOWEST CIGS AND VIZ WILL RUN FROM THE ARIZONA
LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH 18Z MON...WITH INTENSITY
SHIFTING TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS BY 00Z MON AFTERNOON. VIZ AND
CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES WITH MT OBSCURATION AS SNOW
COVERAGE SLIDES EASTWARD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THREE
WEATHER FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...TO BRING LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH ON MONDAY...FAVORING LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TO
INCLUDE MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. A WARM UP IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE LATER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WET PERIOD EXPECTED MON/TUE AS THREE WEATHER FEATURES...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT (MODIFIED ARCTIC) AND A
CLOSER UPPER LEVEL LOW...INTERACT WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS
(~+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF NORMAL) TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. 

12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 0.47"...WHICH IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION INCREASES THE PWAT AT
KABQ TO NEAR 0.51" BY LATE MONDAY...WHICH IS ACTUALLY ABOVE +2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. MOISTURE IS A BIG CHECK WITH THIS
EVENT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE PROLONGED IN DURATION RELATIVE TO
RECENT EVENTS THANKS TO TWO DISTINCT TROUGHS IMPACTING THE AREA.
THE FIRST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOCAL...IS SHOWING
ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION. 12Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE QPF FOR MONDAY AS THIS
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. OUR POPS HAVE TRENDED UP SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR MONDAY...AND OUR NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE 12Z NAM MOS AND 00Z
ECMWF MOS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE FIRST TROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH PLAYED INTO OUR DECISION MAKING WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH. THE WATCH WILL INCLUDE MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHERE WE EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000FT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TO INCLUDE MANY LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...SO THE WATCH WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THOSE FAVORED
FORECAST ZONES. ELSEWHERE...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HERE IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
AREA...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY
(PRECEDED BY RAIN MONDAY)...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FAVORING THE
FOOTHILLS AND WEST MESA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS POSITION OF THE 500MB
LOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY IS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS...SO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER
INGREDIENT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OVER ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS...
IS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...DUE TO ARRIVE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG IS FORECAST BEHIND
THE FRONT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RIDGING
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN DRY WNW FLOW AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS WELL...AND
WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED INITIALLY BY MELTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY...OR SATURDAY AT THE LATEST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 
SEVEN DAYS AS A WET/SNOWY PATTERN SETS UP EARLY MONDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE VENTILATION LATE IN THE WEEK. 
DOUBLE WHAMMY SETS UP EARLY THIS WEEK WITH INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH 
DUE IN MONDAY WITH A STRONGER...COLDER SYSTEM EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS 
ABOVE 6500 FEET MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR 
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL 
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW TOTALS UPWARD OF 
15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE 
TUSAS...JEMEZ AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND 
THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVE PLENTIFUL 
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

VENTILATION RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WITH THE INCOMING STORM 
SYSTEMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WIDESPREAD DEEP SNOW 
COVER KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. 

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY 
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT GFS HINTING THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO 
IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-505-507-516>518-522>524-527>529.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-503-506-508-510>515-521.

&&

$$

43